Discussion paper
DP12661 News Shocks and the Production-Based Term Structure of Equity Returns
We propose a production-based general equilibrium model to study the link between timing of
cash flows and expected returns both in the cross section of stocks and along the aggregate
equity term structure. Our model incorporates long-run growth news with time-varying
volatility and slow learning about the exposure that firms have with respect to these shocks.
Our framework provides a unified explanation of the stylized features of the slope of the
term structure of equity returns, its variations over the business cycle, and the negative
relationship between cash-flow duration and expected returns in the cross section of book-
to-market-sorted portfolios.
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