Covid Economics: Vetted and Real-Time Papers

Covid Economics: Vetted and Real-Time Papers

In This Issue Previous Issues About Covid Economics
  How to Submit to Covid Economics  

Covid Economics, Vetted and Real-Time Papers, launched at the end of March 2020, is a free online CEPR publication. It has been created to quickly disseminate fast-rising scholarly work on the Covid-19 epidemic. Alongside VoxEU, which presents short analyses on the epidemic and other economic issues, Covid Economics features more formal investigations, based on explicit theory and/or empirical evidence.

The Covid-19 breakout challenges all areas of economics including, but not only, health, industrial organization, macroeconomics, finance, history, development, inequality, political economy and public finance, and concerns theory as well as empirical evidence. We are welcoming submissions in all these areas and we aim to have a wide geographical coverage.

Covid Economics is special in three respects:

  • It presents research in real time. The submissions are evaluated very fast, in less than 48 hours and appear online a few days later.
  • The papers are vetted by Editors for quality and relevance. Vetting is different from refereeing in the sense that the decision is up or down, with no possibility of revising and resubmitting.
  • The articles are pre-prints, meaning that authors, who retain copyright, may later submit to established reviews. The list of reviews that have announced that they will accept revised versions of papers featured in Covid Economics appears in each issue.

The vetting process aims at making Covid Economics a reliable source of on-going academic research.

The accepted papers are collated in ‘issues’. There is no preset periodicity of the issues. They are posted whenever a sufficient number of papers are accepted.

CEPR-affiliated researchers may also publish them in the CEPR Discussion Paper series.

Submissions are invited from all researchers, not just those affiliated with CEPR. They can be uploaded here.

For all enquiries, please email [email protected]

   

Latest Issue, 23: 28 May 2020:

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In this Issue

HOW TO EXIT COVID-19 LOCKDOWNS: CULTURE MATTERS 
Jean-Philippe Platteau, Vincenzo Verardi

A key question is how countries can gradually exit the covid-19 lockdown in order to re-open their economies and mitigate the huge economic costs that the lockdown is imposing. Answering this question is the first step of the analysis proposed in this paper. Using a benchmark country known to be severely hit by the virus (Belgium), it compares the epidemiological effects of different stereotyped exit strategies. It concludes that, in order to avoid a rebound in infections and follow a relatively quick path toward ending the epidemic, the re-opening of the economy and the society must be very cautious and strict measures of social distancing and an ambitious and effective testing programme must be implemented. The second step, and main point of the paper, consists of exploring the role of a country's culture, more particularly the prevailing contact habits and norms. This is done by substituting the pattern of inter-individual interactions of two other countries for the pattern observed in the benchmark country. The results are striking: differences in the way people interact, and more specifically the frequencies of their contacts within and between age groups, seem to (partly) explain variations in the incidence of the virus and performances in battling against it. More precisely, if Belgium inherited the interaction pattern of Germany when exiting the lockdown, it could achieve the objective of (partial) re-opening of the economy with more moderate policies than the ones it actually needs. And, conversely, if it inherited the social structure of Italy, it would have to take even more stringent measures lest the cost to bear as a result of economic re-opening should be (much) heavier. In addition to differences in the effectiveness of public health policies and in the genetic make-up of population groups, cultural specificities thus appear to play a significant role in explaining international and inter-regional variations in the incidence of the virus and the impact of public interventions. 

BABY STEPS: THE GENDER DIVISION OF CHILDCARE DURING THE COVID19 PANDEMIC 
Almudena Sevilla and Sarah Smith

The COVID19 pandemic has caused shocks to the demand for home childcare (with the closure of schools and nurseries) and the supply of home childcare (with many people not working). We collect real-time data on daily lives to document that UK families with young children have been doing the equivalent of a working week in childcare. Women have been doing the greater share, but overall, the gender childcare gap (the difference between the share of childcare done by women and the share done by men) for the additional, post-COVID19 hours is smaller than that for the allocation of pre-COVID19 childcare. However, the amount of additional childcare provided by men is very sensitive to their employment – the allocation has become more equal in households where men are working from home and where they have been furloughed/ lost their job. There are likely to be long-term implications from these changes – potentially negative for the careers of parents of young children; but also, more positively for some families, for sharing the burden of childcare more equally in the future.  

PRODUCTION NETWORKS AND EPIDEMIC SPREADING:  HOW TO RESTART THE UK ECONOMY?
Anton Pichler, Marco Pangallo, R. Maria del Rio-Chanona, François Lafond, J. Doyne Farmer

We analyse the economics and epidemiology of different scenarios for a phased restart of the UK economy. Our economic model is designed to address the unique features of the COVID-19 pandemic. Social distancing measures affect both supply and demand, and input-output constraints play a key role in restricting economic output. Standard models for production functions are not adequate to model the short-term effects of lockdown. A survey of industry analysts conducted by IHS Markit allows us to evaluate which inputs for each industry are absolutely necessary for production over a two month period. Our model also includes inventory dynamics and feedback between unemployment and consumption. We demonstrate that economic outcomes are very sensitive to the choice of production function, show how supply constraints cause strong network effects, and find some counter-intuitive effects, such as that reopening only a few industries can actually lower aggregate output. Occupation-specific data and contact surveys allow us to estimate how different industries affect the transmission rate of the disease. We investigate six different re-opening scenarios, presenting our best estimates for the increase in R0 and the increase in GDP. Our results suggest that there is a reasonable compromise that yields a relatively small increase in R0 and delivers a substantial boost in economic output. This corresponds to a situation in which all non-consumer facing industries reopen, schools are open only for workers who need childcare, and everyone who can work from home continues to work from home.  

OPTIMAL CASE DETECTION AND SOCIAL DISTANCING POLICIES TO SUPPRESS COVID-19
Stefan Pollinger

This paper shows that the optimal combination of social distancing and case detection allows for complete and efficient eradication of COVID-19. The first contribution is theoretical. I show that the optimal suppression-policy is a simple function of observable sufficient-statistics, making it easily implementable. I prove that optimal social distancing is the strongest when an outbreak is detected, and then gradually relaxed.  If case detection is sufficiently efficient, social distancing vanishes wholly and quickly; otherwise, it needs to stay in place until a vaccine arrives. The second contribution is quantitative. I find that, if Italy adopts digital contact tracing, total suppression costs only 0.8% of annual GDP. In sharp contrast, under the current detection efficiency, the total cost of suppression amounts to at least 14% of GDP. 

EXPOSURE TO THE COVID-19 STOCK MARKET CRASH AND ITS EFFECT ON HOUSEHOLD EXPECTATIONS
Tobin Hanspal, Annika Weber and Johannes Wohlfart

We survey a representative sample of US households to study how exposur to the Covid-19 stock market crash affects expectations and planned behavior. Wealth shocks are associated with upward adjustments of expectations about retirement age, desired working hours, and household debt, but have only small effects on expected spending. We provide correlational and experimental evidence that beliefs about the duration of the stock market recovery shape households' expectations about their own wealth and their planned investment decisions and labor market activity. Our findings shed light on the implications of household exposure to stock market crashes for expectation formation.

LOCKDOWN STRATEGIES, MOBILITY PATTERNS AND COVID-19
Nikos Askitas, Konstantinos Tatsiramos, Bertrand Verheyden 

We develop a multiple-events model and exploit within and between country variation in the timing, type and level of intensity of various public policies to study their dynamic effects on the daily incidence of COVID-19 and on population mobility patterns across 135 countries. We remove concurrent policy bias by taking into account the contemporaneous presence of multiple interventions. The main result of the paper is that cancelling public events and imposing restrictions on private gatherings followed by school closures have quantitatively the most pronounced effects on reducing the daily incidence of COVID-19. They are followed by workplace as well as stay-at-home requirements, whose statistical significance and levels of effect are not as pronounced. Instead, we find no effects for international travel controls, public transport closures and restrictions on movements across cities and regions. We establish that these findings are mediated by their effect on population mobility patterns in a manner consistent with time-use and epidemiological factors. 

IMPACT OF THE STATE OF EMERGENCY DECLARATION FOR COVID-19 ON PREVENTIVE BEHAVIORS AND MENTAL CONDITIONS IN JAPAN: DIFFERENCE IN DIFFERENCE ANALYSIS USING PANEL DATA 
Eiji Yamamura and Yoshiro Tsutsui 

During the COVID-19 epidemic in Japan between March and April 2020, Internet surveys were conducted to construct panel data to investigate changes at the individual level regarding preventive behaviors and mental conditions by surveying the same respondents at different times. Specifically, the difference-in-difference (DID) method was used to explore the impact of the COVID-19 state of emergency declared by the government. Key findings were: (1) the declaration led people to stay home, while also generating anger, fear, and anxiety. (2) The effect of the declaration on the promotion of preventive behaviors was larger than the detrimental effect on mental conditions. (3) Overall, the effect on women was larger than that on men.  

FAST AND LOCAL: HOW LOCKDOWN POLICIES AFFECT THE SPREAD AND SEVERITY OF THE COVID-19?
Jean-Philippe Bonardi, Quentin Gallea, Dimtrija Kalanoski and Rafael Lalive 

We analyse whether the various types of lockdowns implemented around the world mitigated the surge in infections and reduced mortality related to the covid-19, and whether their effectiveness differed in developing vs. developed countries. Our data cover 184 countries from December 31st 2019 to May 4th 2020, and identifies when lockdowns were adopted, along with confirmed cases and deaths. We find that reducing movements within countries has been effective in developed economies -averting about 650,000 deaths- but not in developing ones, that countries that acted fast fared better, and that closing borders has had no appreciable effect, even after fifty-days. 

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Previous Issues

 


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Issue 1: April 05 2020

  • PANDEMICS: LONG-RUN EFFECTS
    Óscar Jordà, Sanjay R. Singh  and Alan M. Taylor

  • WHO CAN WORK AT HOME?
    Jonathan Dingel and Brent Neiman

  • LOCKDOWN EFFECT
    Tobias Hartl, Klaus Wälde and Enzo Weber

  • STOCK MARKET REACTIONS
    Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis, Kyle Kost, Marco Sammon and Tasaneeya Viratyosin

  • COVID-19 DYNAMICS AND ASSET PRICES
    Alexis Akira Toda

  • RESILIENCE AND GOVERNANCE
    Frederic Jenny

 


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Issue 2: April 08 2020

  • SWAP LINES
    Saleem Bahaj and Ricardo Reis
  • SOCIAL DISTANCING AND BUSINESS
    Miklós Koren and Rita Peto
  • GROUP TESTING
    Christian Gollier and Olivier Gossner
  • LOCKDOWNS AND SUPPLY CHAINS
    Hiroyasu Inoue and Yasuyuki Todo
  • WORK VERSUS SAFETY
    Tito Boeri, Alessandro Caiumi, and Marco Paccagnella
  • FISCAL POLICY INSTRUMENTS
    Miguel Faria-e-Castro

 


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Issue 3: April 10 2020

  • DEALING WITH DATA GAPS
    James H. Stock
  • NEW YORK CITY NEIGHBOURHOODS
    George J. Borjas
  • SIMULATION POLICY INDEX
    Ceyhun Elgin, Gokce Basbug and Abdullah Yalaman
  • US PRIMARIES AND COVID
    James Bisbee and Dan Honig
  • SECTORAL EFFECTS
    Jean-Noël Barrot, Basile Grassi, and Julien Sauvagnat
  • ECONOMIC RISK BY COUNTRY
    Ilan Noy, Nguyen Doan, Benno Ferrarini and Donghyun Park
 

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Issue 4: April 14 2020

  • STOCK RETURNS
    Laura Alfaro, Anusha Chari, Andrew Greenland and Peter K. Schott
  • MITIGATION POLICIES
    Callum Jones, Thomas Philippon and Venky Venkateswaran
  • MORTALITY IN LOMBARDY
    Carlo Favero
  • GENDER EQUALITY
    Titan Alon, Matthias Doepke, Jane Olmstead-Rumsey and Michèle Tertilt
  • WHO MOVES UNDER LOCKDOWN? (1)
    Sam Engle, John Stromme and Anson Zhou
  • WHO MOVES UNDER LOCKDOWN? (2)
    Marcus O. Painter and Tian Qiu
 

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Issue 5: April 16 2020

  • SEARCH AND MATCHING
    Pietro Garibaldi, Espen R. Moen and Christopher A. Pissarides
  • A THEORY OF THE “SWEDISH SOLUTION”
    Dirk Krueger, Harald Uhlig and Taojun Xie
  • GLOBAL FINANCIAL EFFECTS
    Chang Ma, John Rogers and Sili Zhou
  • WHEN IS THE PEAK?
    Albrecht Ritschl
  • RISK AVERSION
    Di Bu, Tobin Hanspal, Yin Lao and Yong Liu
  • UNIVERSAL CLOTH MASK ADOPTION
    Jason Abaluck, Judith Chevalier, Nicholas A. Christakis, Howard Forman, Edward H. Kaplan, Albert Ko and Sten H. Vermund
 

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Issue 6: April 17 2020

  • ECONOMIC INDEX
    Daniel Lewis, Karel Mertens and James Stock
  • HEALTH VS WEALTH
    Andrew Glover, Jonathan Heathcote, Dirk Krueger and José-Víctor Ríos-Rull
  • SUPPLY AND DEMAND
    R. Maria del Rio-Chanona, Penny Mealy, Anton Pichler, Francois Lafond and J. Doyne Farmer
  • HOME WORKING IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
    Fernando Saltiel
  • RISK UNDERESTIMATION
    Jordan Schoenfeld
  • 1918 FLU IN DENMARK
    Christian Møller Dahl, Casper Worm Hansen and Peter Sandholt Jensen
 

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Issue 7: April 20 2020

  • DOES SOCIAL DISTANCING MATTER?
    Michael Greenstone and Vishan Nigam
  • HELICOPTER MONEY
    Donato Masciandaro
  • EFFECTIVENESS OF POLICIES
    Xiaohui Chen and Ziyi Qiu
  • OPTIMAL LOCKDOWN
    Martín Gonzalez-Eiras and Dirk Niepelt
  • CONSUMPTION WITH CREDIT CARDS
    Asger Lau Andersen, Emil Toft Hansen, Niels Johannesen and Adam Sheridan
  • HOW TO KEEP PEOPLE STILL
    Adam Brzezinski, Guido Deiana, Valentin Kecht, David Van Dijcke
 
 

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Issue 8: April 22 2020

  • WHEN BELIEFS CHANGE
    Julian Kozlowski, Laura Veldkamp and Venky Venkateswaran
  • TESTING INEQUALITY IN NYC
    Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé, Ken Teoh and Martín Uribe
  • HOW TO TEST
    Matthew Cleevely, Daniel Susskind, David Vines, Louis Vines and Samuel Wills
  • WHO CAN WORK AT HOME AROUND THE WORLD
    Charles Gottlieb, Jan Grobovšek and Markus Poschke
  • FISCAL POLICY IN ITALY
    Francesco Figari and Carlo V. Fiorio
  • GLOBAL COORDINATION
    Thorsten Beck and Wolf Wagner
 
 

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Issue 9: April 24 2020

  • COSTLY DISASTERS AND COVID-19
    Sydney C. Ludvigson, Sai Ma and Serena Ng
  • EXTERNALITIES OF SOCIAL DISTANCING
    Maryam Farboodi, Gregor Jarosch and Robert Shimer
  • UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE AND DISASTERS
    Daniel Aaronson, Scott A. Brave, R. Andrew Butters, Daniel W. Sacks and Boyoung Seo
  • INTERNATIONAL AIR TRAVEL
    Sekou Keita
  • COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS
    Robert Rowthorn
  • WORKING AT HOME IN GERMANY
    Harald Fadinger and Jan Schymik
 
 

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Issue 10: April 27 2020

  • THE GREAT INFLUENZA IN ITALY
    Mario Carillo and Tullio Jappelli
  • A SIMPLE MODEL OF ECONOMIC SPREAD
    Ernst-Ludwig von Thadden
  • FALLEN ANGELS IN THE US
    Viral Acharya and Sascha Steffen
  • CONSUMPTION RESPONSES TO CARES
    Christopher Carroll, Edmund Crawley, Jiri Slacalek and Matthew White
  • OLG AS AN ALTERNATIVE TO SIR
    Michael Beenstock and Xieer Dai
  • SEVEN SCENARIOS
    Warwick McKibbin and Roshen Fernando
 
 

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Issue 11: April 29 2020

  • EXTERNALITIES OF SOCIAL DISTANCING
    Zachary Bethune and Anton Korinek
  • THE ESG PREMIUM
    Rui Albuquerque, Yrjo Koskinen, Shuai Yang and Chendi Zhang
  • THE VALUE OF BIG DATA
    Kairong Xiao
  • CHOOSING TOOLS
    Francesc Obiols-Homs
  • TIME FOR BED(S)
    Nathan Sussman
  • FISCAL ACTIONS AND FINANCIAL MARKETS
    Anuragh Balajee, Shekhar Tomar and Gautham Udupa
 
 

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Issue 12: May 1 2020

  • PRICE GOUGING
    Luís Cabral and Lei Xu
  • SIR MODELS: A SURVEY
    Christopher Avery, William Bossert, Adam Thomas Clark, Glenn Ellison and Sara Fisher Ellison
  • THE BURDEN OF SOCIAL DISTANCING
    Simon Mongey, Laura Pilossoph and Alex Weinberg
  • HEALTH RISK AND INCOME LOSS WITHIN HOUSEHOLDS
    Warn N. Lekfuangfu, Suphanit Piyapromdee, Ponpoje Porapakkarm and Nada Wasi
  • POLITICAL COMMUNICATION IN BRAZIL
    Lucas Argentieri Mariani, Jessica Gagete‑Miranda and Paula Rettl
  • INEQUALITY IN PAST PANDEMICS
    Davide Furceri, Prakash Loungani, Jonathan D. Ostry and Pietro Pizzuto
  • FINTECH ADOPTION
    Jonathan Fu and Mrinal Mishra
  • EFFICIENT TEST ALLOCATION
    Christelle Baunez, Mickael Degoulet, Stéphane Luchini, Patrick A. Pintus and Miriam Teschl
 

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Issue 13: May 4 2020

  • TESTING VS. QUARANTINE
    David Berger, Kyle Herkenhoff and Simon Mongey
  • WHO GETS SICK IN NYC?
    Milena Almagro and Angelo Orane-Hutchinsonn
  • CULTURAL AND ECONOMIC DISCRIMINATION
    Annie Tubadji, Don J Webber and Fred Boy
  • TARGETING WHO STAYS AT HOME
    Neha Bairoliya and Ayse Imrohoroglu
  • DARK TRADING
    Gbenga Ibikunle and Khaladdin Rzayev
  • LOCKDOWN AND TESTING EFFECTS
    Akbar Ullah and Olubunmi Agift Ajala
  • VOLUNTARY DISTANCING
    William Maloney and Temel Taskin
  • STARTUPS: ACHILLES' HEEL?
    Petr Sedláček and Vincent Sterk
 

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Issue 14: May 6 2020

  • OPTIMAL LOCKDOWN
    Fernando Alvarez, David Argente and Francesco Lippi
  • POLICY INCENTIVES
    Roberto Chang and Andrés Velasco
  • MISSING EMERGENCIES
    Jorge Alé-Chilet, Juan Pablo Atal and Patricio Domínguez
  • HEALTH VS. WEALTH?
    Peter Zhixian Lin and Christopher M. Meissner
  • MARKETS GET COVID
    Mariano Massimiliano Croce, Paolo Farroni and Isabella Wolfskeil
  • HEALTH VS. GDP: NO TRADE-OFF
    Sangmin Aum, Sang Yoon (Tim) Lee and Yongseok Shin
  • SOCIAL DISTANCING AROUND THE WORLD
    Gonzalo Castex, Evgenia Dechter and Miguel Lorca
  • WHO CAN WORK AT HOME?
    Isaure Delaporte and Werner Peña
 

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Issue 15: May 7 2020

  • PERSISTENCE OF PANDEMICS
    Peter Zhixian Lin and Christopher M. Meissner
  • VOLUNTARY AND MANDATORY SOCIAL DISTANCING
    Alexander Chudik, M. Hashem Pesaran and Alessandro Rebucci
  • WHO GOT HIT, WHEN AND WHY?
    Annette Alstadsæter, Bernt Bratsberg, Gaute Eielsen, Wojciech Kopczuk, Simen Markussen, Oddbjørn Raaum and Knut Røed
  • LONG-RUN EFFECTS ON EMPLOYMENT
    Victoria Gregory, Guido Menzio and David Wiczer
  • EQUILIBRIUM SOCIAL DISTANCING
    Flavio Toxvaerd
  • THE US PAYCHECK PROTECTION PROGRAM
    Anna Cororaton and Samuel Rosen
  • QUARANTINE: WHEN AND HOW LONG?
    Rikard Forslid and Mathias Herzing
  • POVERTY IN AFRICA
    Gbêtondji Melaine Armel Nonvide
 

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Issue 16: May 11 2020

  • SWEDEN VS OTHERS: A DRAW
    Benjamin Born, Alexander M. Dietrich and Gernot J. Müller
  • GENDER (IN)EQUALITY
    Renée B. Adams
  • CONFLICTS WORLDWIDE
    Nicolas Berman, Mathieu Couttenier, Nathalie Monnet and Rohit Ticku
  • GETTING PEOPLE BACK INTO WORK
    Monica Costa Dias, Christine Farquharson, Rachel Griffith, Robert Joyce and Peter Levell
  • HERD IMMUNITY
    Christian Gollier
  • STRATEGIC BEHAVIOUR
    David McAdams
  • THE ROLE OF TRUST AND NORMS
    Toker Doganoglu and Emre Ozdenoren
  • MEASUREMENT WITHOUT TESTING
    Oscar Dimdore-Miles and David Miles

 


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Issue 17: May 13 2020

 

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Issue 18: May 15 2020


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Issue 19: May 18 2020


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Issue 20: May 20 2020


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Issue 21: May 22 2020


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Issue 22: May 26 2020

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