Free DP Download 01 May 2020 - VOLUNTARY AND MANDATORY SOCIAL DISTANCING: Evidence on Covid-19 exposure rates from Chinese provinces and selected countries

Thursday, April 30, 2020

VOLUNTARY AND MANDATORY SOCIAL DISTANCING: Evidence on Covid-19 exposure rates from Chinese provinces and selected countries 
Alexander Chudik, M Hashem Pesaran, Alessandro Rebucci   
CEPR DP No. 14646 | April 2020

While targeted mandated lockdown policies can be very useful in flattening the epidemic curve, voluntary policies are relatively ineffective. Self-isolation can affect the epidemic curve, but only when it is close to its peak. While mandating social distancing is costly in terms of employment loss, if it is targeted towards individuals most likely to spread the infection, the employment loss can be somewhat reduced. The degree of effective isolation is lowest in Italy and Spain with an exposure five times larger than Hubei province, the epicentre of the epidemic in China.

These are among the findings of new research by Alessandro Rebucci and colleagues, which studies the implications of social distancing both on the epidemic and recession curves, by considering a modification of the standard Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model of epidemic that allows for different degrees of compulsory as well as voluntary social distancing. The study shows that:

  • The fraction of population that self-isolates varies with the perceived probability of contracting the disease. 
  • Mandating social distancing is very effective at flattening the epidemic curve, but is costly in terms of employment loss. 
  • If targeted towards individuals most likely to spread the infection, the employment loss can be somewhat reduced. 
  • Voluntary self-isolation driven by individual's perceived risk of becoming infected kicks in only towards the peak of the epidemic and has little or no impact on flattening the curve. 
  • The exposure rates for some European countries (Italy and Spain) are three to five times larger than Hubei (the epicentre of the epidemic). 

The study also provides country-specific estimates of the recovery rate, showing it to be about 21 days (a week longer than the 14 days typically assumed), and relatively homogeneous across Chinese provinces and for a selected number of countries. 

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