Free DP Download 07 November 2019 - TRUMP'S TRADE WAR & HEALTH POLICIES ARE VOTE-LOSERS FOR THE REPUBLICAN PARTY: Evidence from the 2018 midterm elections
DID TRUMP'S TRADE WAR IMPACT THE 2018 ELECTION?
Emily Blanchard, Chad P. Bown and Davin Chor
CEPR DP No. 14091 | 01 November 2019
Republican candidates lost support in the 2018 United States congressional election in counties more exposed to trade retaliation, but saw no commensurate electoral gains from US tariff protection.
These are among the findings of a new CEPR study by Emily Blanchard and colleagues, which determines that electoral losses were driven by retaliatory tariffs on agricultural products, and were only partially mitigated by the agricultural subsidies announced in the summer of 2018 by the US government.
The results show that the Republican Party also fared worse in counties that had seen recent gains in health insurance coverage, affirming the importance of healthcare as an election issue. A counterfactual calculation suggests that the trade war can account for five of the Republicans' lost House seats, while health care was responsible for eight lost seats.
Figure A.2: Estimated Decline in 2018 House Republican Vote Share associated with the Trade War and Health Care Policy
A) Trade War