Free DP Download 25 January 2021 - THE ECONOMIC CASE FOR GLOBAL VACCINATIONS: An Epidemiological Model with International Production Networks

Monday, January 25, 2021

The Economic Case for Global Vaccinations: An Epidemiological Model with International Production Networks
Cem Cakmakli, Selva Demiralp, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Sevcan Yesiltas, Muhammed Yildirim
CEPR DP No. 15710 January 2021

COVID-19 pandemic had a devastating effect on both lives and livelihoods in 2020. The arrival of effective vaccines can be a major game changer. However, vaccines are in short supply as of early 2021 and most of them are reserved for the advanced economies. We show that the global GDP loss of not inoculating all the countries, relative to a counterfactual of global vaccinations, is higher than the cost of manufacturing and distributing vaccines globally. We use an economic-epidemiological model of international production and trade networks and calibrate the model to 65 countries. Our estimates suggest that up to 49 percent of the global economic costs of the pan-demic in 2021 are borne by the advanced economies even if they achieve universal vaccination in their own countries.

Press Mentions:

New York Times: Poor Countries Go Unvaccinated, Rich Ones Will Pay
A failure to distribute the Covid-19 vaccine in poor nations will worsen economic damage, with half the costs borne by wealthy countries, new CEPR research shows >>>.

The Financial Times: Vaccine delays in poorer nations threaten advanced economies
Developed nations’ recovery hit through trade links unless they help more, new CEPR research finds >>>.


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