The latest findings from the CEPR - EABCN Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee (EABCDC) 

Tuesday, September 29, 2020

The CEPR-EABCN Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee deliberated electronically on 15 September 2020 to assess the state of euro area economic activity in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic. The Committee concluded that the latest euro area expansion reached its peak in 2019Q4. The pace of that now-ended 31-quarter expansion, which had begun in 2013Q2, was the slowest of all euro area recoveries to date.

The euro area entered recession during 2020Q1, most likely in March, with economic activity and employment decreasing in 2020Q1 and 2020Q2 across euro area countries at unprecedented speeds and to unprecedented depths.

The magnitude of the shock suffered by the euro area and the marked changes that accompany this downturn, notably in terms of labour market disruptions and novel fiscal and monetary policy dynamics, guarantee that the current recession is not a brief interruption in  a “double-peak” expansion but a cyclical episode of its own, as will be the following expansion.

The Committee will continue to monitor developments in euro area economic activity to further assess the characteristics of this downturn and to determine the trough that marks the beginning of the expansion, which may already be underway.

The full statement of the CEPR-EABCN Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee is available here.

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About the Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee

The CEPR-EABCN Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee establishes the chronology of recessions and expansions of the eleven original euro area member countries plus Greece for 1970-1998, and of the entire euro area from 1999 onwards. 

It also comments, in the spring and in the fall, on the current state of aggregate economic activity in the euro area and launches research initiatives designed to better monitor and understand aggregate economic developments in the euro area.

Dating activities and bi-annual statements on the state of euro area economic activity are conducted in total independence of EABCN. Research initiatives launched and pursued by the Committee are subject to the approval and evaluation of the EABCN Scientific Committee.
The Committee is currently composed of the following members:

  • Philippe Weil (chair), ULB and CEPR
  • Refet Gurkaynak (vice-chair), Bilkent University and CEPR
  • John Fernald, INSEAD, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and CEPR
  • Evi Pappa, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid and CEPR
  • Antonella Trigari, Bocconi University and CEPR