The latest findings from the CEPR - EABCN Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee (EABCDC)
The CEPR-EABCN Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee deliberated electronically on 18 March 2021 to assess the state of euro area economic activity. The Committee concluded that available data do not allow it to conclude whether the euro area recession that started after the 2019Q4 peak has ended. The sharp rebound in economic activity that occurred during 2020Q3 could have marked the end of the euro area recession, but it may just have been a reprieve.
Current data show a precipitous drop in activity in 2020Q2, a sharp rebound in 2020Q3, but then a mild decline in 2020Q4. The Committee’s view is that this pattern reflects the ebb and flow of the Covid-19 pandemic and associated lockdowns, rather than intrinsic expansionary dynamics. The former might, of course, be masking the latter. But making a conclusive cyclical determination requires evidence of a sustained expansion.
The full statement of the CEPR-EABCN Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee is available here.
About the Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee
The CEPR-EABCN Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee establishes the chronology of recessions and expansions of the eleven original euro area member countries plus Greece for 1970-1998, and of the entire euro area from 1999 onwards.
It also comments, in the spring and in the fall, on the current state of aggregate economic activity in the euro area and launches research initiatives designed to better monitor and understand aggregate economic developments in the euro area.
Dating activities and bi-annual statements on the state of euro area economic activity are conducted in total independence of EABCN. Research initiatives launched and pursued by the Committee are subject to the approval and evaluation of the EABCN Scientific Committee.
The Committee is currently composed of the following members:
- Philippe Weil (chair), ULB and CEPR
- Refet Gurkaynak (vice-chair), Bilkent University and CEPR
- John Fernald, INSEAD, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and CEPR
- Evi Pappa, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid and CEPR
- Antonella Trigari, Bocconi University and CEPR
The Committee’s research assistant and rapporteur is Isabel Mico Millan, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid.