The latest findings of the CEPR-EABCN Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee (EABCDC) 

Wednesday, November 10, 2021

The CEPR-EABCN Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee deliberated on 25 October 2021 to assess the state of euro area economic activity. The Committee has determined that a trough in economic activity occurred in 2020Q2, marking the end of the recession that had started after 2019Q4. This brief, two-quarter recession is unprecedented in length and strength: it is both the shortest and the deepest of all euro recessions to date – reflecting the magnitude and unusual nature of the Covid-19 disruption to economic activity. 

The euro area has been expanding since this 2020Q2 trough with economic activity recovering in punctuated bursts – as can be expected from the uneven pace of the pandemic since then. In particular, the two quarters of negative GDP growth in 2020Q4 and 2021Q1 are judged, based on available data, to be part of the unsteady expansion that started after 2020Q2. A sui generis recovery is following a sui generis recession.

The full statement of the CEPR-EABCN Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee is available here.

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About the Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee

The CEPR-EABCN Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee establishes the chronology of recessions and expansions of the eleven original euro area member countries plus Greece for 1970-1998, and of the entire euro area from 1999 onwards. 

It also comments, in the spring and in the fall, on the current state of aggregate economic activity in the euro area and launches research initiatives designed to better monitor and understand aggregate economic developments in the euro area.

Dating activities and bi-annual statements on the state of euro area economic activity are conducted in total independence of EABCN. Research initiatives launched and pursued by the Committee are subject to the approval and evaluation of the EABCN Scientific Committee.
The Committee is currently composed of the following members:

  • Philippe Weil (chair), ULB and CEPR
  • Refet Gurkaynak (vice-chair), Bilkent University and CEPR
  • John Fernald, INSEAD, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and CEPR
  • Evi Pappa, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid and CEPR
  • Antonella Trigari, Bocconi University and CEPR

The Committee’s research assistant and rapporteur is Isabel Mico Millan, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid.