Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) cordially invites you to attend a presentation of a research paper 'A Bespoke, probabilistic approach to climate scenario analysis', 14 March 2023, 4:30 PM - 05:45 PM CET, via Zoom. 

Register your interest to attend here.

The paper will be presented by Jeremy Lawson (Chief Economist and Head of the abrdn Research Institute).

The paper has been co-authored with Anna Moss, Alexandre Popa, Eva Cairns and Craig Mackenzie.

The online seminar will be moderated by Mar Reguant (Northwestern University, Barcelona School of Economics, National Bureau of Economic Research and CEPR).

We develop a new approach to designing climate scenarios and assessing the impact of physical and transition climate risks on companies and markets that is better tailored for financial and investment decision making. Our main innovations are that we: (i) allow for more plausible policy variation across sectors and regions to construct ‘bespoke’ scenarios that are more realistic than typical ‘off-the-shelf’ reference scenarios, (ii) develop a baseline scenario benchmarked against what is priced into the market to better identify potential asset price misalignments, (iii) assign probabilities to scenarios and aggregate them to analyse how the long-term fair valuation of asset prices relates to a probability-weighted mean outcome.

This research paper, which is a part of CEPR's Occassional Discussion Paper series, can be downloaded here.

We look forward to welcoming you at the event.