Discussion paper

DP10815 Predictable Recoveries

Should an unexpected change in real GNP of x% lead to an x% change in the forecasts of future GNP? The answer could be no even if GNP is a random walk. We show that US economic downturns often go together with predictable short-term recoveries and with changes in long-term GNP forecasts that are substantially smaller than the initial drop. But not always! Essential for our results is that GNP forecasts are not based on a univariate time series model, which is not uncommon. Our alternative forecasts are based on a simple multivariate representation of GNP?s expenditure components.


Den Haan, W, X Cai and J Pinder (2015), ‘DP10815 Predictable Recoveries‘, CEPR Discussion Paper No. 10815. CEPR Press, Paris & London. https://cepr.org/publications/dp10815