Discussion paper

DP11410 Assessing the Non-Linear Effects of Credit Market Shocks

Can financial market disruptions have non-linear dynamic effects on economic activity?
Using a novel econometric technique, we assess whether credit shocks have non-linear effects, notably asymmetry and
state-dependence, that have been predicted theoretically but never considered empirically.
We obtain two main results. First, negative shocks to credit supply have large and persistent effects on
output, but positive shocks have no significant effect. Second, credit supply shocks have larger and more persistent effects in periods of weak economic growth. These findings are consistent with the presence of occasionally binding financial constraints and the recent theoretical predictions of He and Krishnamurthy (2013) and Brunnermeier and Sannikov (2014).


Barnichon, R and C Matthes (2016), ‘DP11410 Assessing the Non-Linear Effects of Credit Market Shocks‘, CEPR Discussion Paper No. 11410. CEPR Press, Paris & London. https://cepr.org/publications/dp11410