Discussion paper

DP12164 The Dire Effects of the Lack of Monetary and Fiscal Coordination

What happens if the government's willingness to stabilize a large stock of debt is waning, while the central bank is adamant about preventing a rise in inflation? The large fiscal imbalance brings about inflationary pressures, triggering a monetary tightening, further debt accumulation, and additional inflationary pressure. Thus, the economy will go through a spiral of higher inflation, output contraction, and further debt accumulation. A coordinated commitment to inflate away the portion of debt resulting from a large recession leads to better macroeconomic outcomes by separating the issue of long-run fiscal sustainability from the need for short-run fiscal stabilization. This strategy can also
be used to rule out episodes in which the central bank becomes constrained by the zero lower bound.


Bianchi, F and L Melosi (eds) (2017), “DP12164 The Dire Effects of the Lack of Monetary and Fiscal Coordination”, CEPR Press Discussion Paper No. 12164. https://cepr.org/publications/dp12164