DP12628 Capital Share Risk in U.S. Asset Pricing
A single macroeconomic factor based on growth in the capital share of aggregate income
exhibits signiÖcant explanatory power for expected returns across a range of equity characteristic
portfolios and non-equity asset classes, with risk price estimates that are of the
same sign and similar in magnitude. Positive exposure to capital share risk earns a positive
risk premium, commensurate with recent asset pricing models in which redistributive shocks
shift the share of income between the wealthy, who Önance consumption primarily out of
asset ownership, and workers, who Önance consumption primarily out of wages and salaries.