Discussion paper

DP14037 The FOMC Risk Shift

A large share of stock returns around FOMC meetings is driven by shocks that are uncorrelated with news about risk-free rates but seem closely related to changes in investors' perception of risk. These "FOMC risk shifts" can only partly be traced to fundamental news. However, FOMC risk shifts are accompanied by sizeable shifts in fund flows reminiscent of "risk on/off" modes and strong price pressure, which accounts for up to half of returns. Our results highlight the role of investor heterogeneity as an important factor to understanding the short-term dynamics of stock returns in response to monetary policy news.


Schmeling, M, A Schrimpf and T Kroencke (2019), ‘DP14037 The FOMC Risk Shift‘, CEPR Discussion Paper No. 14037. CEPR Press, Paris & London. https://cepr.org/publications/dp14037