Discussion paper

DP14202 Trust in the Central Bank and Inflation Expectations

Using micro data from the 2015 Dutch CentERpanel, we examine whether trust in the European Central Bank (ECB) influences individuals’ expectations and uncertainty about future inflation, and whether it anchors inflation expectations. We find that higher trust in the ECB lowers inflation expectations on average, and significantly reduces uncertainty about future inflation. Moreover, results from quantile regressions suggest that trusting the ECB increases (lowers) inflation expectations when the latter are below (above) the ECB’s inflation target. These findings hold after controlling for people’s knowledge about the objectives of the ECB.


Christelis, D, D Georgarakos and M van Rooij (2019), ‘DP14202 Trust in the Central Bank and Inflation Expectations‘, CEPR Discussion Paper No. 14202. CEPR Press, Paris & London. https://cepr.org/publications/dp14202