Discussion paper

DP15330 Should we trust cross sectional multiplier estimates?

I examine the properties of cross sectional estimates of multipliers, elasticities, or pass-throughs when the data is generated by a conventional multi-unit time series specification. A number of important biases plague estimates; the most relevant one occurs when the cross section is not dynamic homogenous. I suggest methods that can deal with this problem and show the magnitude of the biases cross sectional estimators display in an experimental setting. I contrast average time series and average cross sectional estimates of local fiscal multipliers for US states.


Canova, F (2020), ‘DP15330 Should we trust cross sectional multiplier estimates?‘, CEPR Discussion Paper No. 15330. CEPR Press, Paris & London. https://cepr.org/publications/dp15330