Discussion paper

DP15340 Imported or Home Grown? The 1992-3 EMS Crisis

Using newly assembled data on foreign exchange market intervention, we construct a daily index of exchange market pressure during the 1992-3 crisis in the European Monetary System, allowing us to pinpoint when and where the crisis was most severe. Our analysis focuses on a neglected factor in the crisis: the role of the weak dollar in intra-EMS tensions. We provide new evidence of the contribution of a falling dollar-Deutschmark exchange rate to pressure on EMS currencies


Eichengreen, B and A Naef (2020), ‘DP15340 Imported or Home Grown? The 1992-3 EMS Crisis‘, CEPR Discussion Paper No. 15340. CEPR Press, Paris & London. https://cepr.org/publications/dp15340