DP16123 Credit Supply, Firms, and Earnings Inequality

• Christian Moser Farzad Saidi Benjamin Wirth Stefanie Wolter
18 Jan 2022

We study the distributional consequences of monetary policy-induced credit supply in the German labor market. Firms in relationships with banks that are more exposed to the introduction of negative interest rates in 2014 experience a relative contraction in credit supply, associated with lower average wages and employment. Within firms, initially lower-paid workers are more likely to leave employment, while initially higher-paid workers see a relative decline in wages. Between firms, wages fall by more at initially higher-paying employers. Therefore, credit affects the distribution of pay and employment in line with predictions of an equilibrium model with credit and search frictions.