Discussion paper

DP17850 Four mistakes in the use of measures of expected inflation

With the profusion of measures of expected inflation (from market prices and from surveys of households, firms, and professionals) it is a mistake to focus on a single one while ignoring the others. This paper discusses four common arguments for a single focus, and finds each of them to be lacking. In the process, it isolates characteristics of different measures that models that combine them should take into account.

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Citation

Reis, R (2023), “DP17850 Four mistakes in the use of measures of expected inflation”, CEPR Press Discussion Paper No. 17850. https://cepr.org/publications/dp17850