DP19716 Inventories, Demand Shocks Propagation, and Amplification in Supply Chains
I study the role of industries’ position in supply chains in shaping the transmission of final demand shocks. First, I use a novel shift-share design leveraging destination-specific final demand shocks and a new measure of destination exposure accounting for direct and indirect linkages. I find that demand shocks amplify significantly as they propagate upstream, with upstream industries experiencing output elasticities up to three times larger than final good producers, consistent with the bullwhip effect. To rationalize these empirical results, I develop a tractable production network model with inventories and study how the properties of the network and the cyclicality of inventories interact to determine whether final demand shocks amplify or dissipate upstream. I test the mechanism by directly estimating the model-implied relationship between output growth and demand shocks, mediated by network position and inventories. I find that the presence of inventories increases output elasticities by 18% on average, highlighting the macroeconomic significance of this channel. Finally, I use the model to quantitatively study the effects of long-run trends of lengthening supply chains and rising inventories on the volatility of the economy.
