DP20231 The Long-Run Effects of Popular Uprisings: Evidence from the German Peasants’ War
The German Peasants War, the largest popular uprising in Europe before the French Revolution, has been extensively studied by historians, but its long-term regional effects have not been quantitatively analyzed. This paper provides the first systematic assessment by examining urban development patterns in conflict-affected regions using data on economic construction activities from 1225 to 1825 drawn from the Deutsches Städtebuch. Using difference-in-differences and event study methods, I find significant regional heterogeneity in the impact of the war. The conflict area as a whole exhibits a significant decline in economic construction activity, an effect that is even more pronounced in the southern conflict area, but not significant in the northern part. I conduct placebo tests using plausible counterfactual courses of the war, which do not yield significant results. These findings highlight the lasting impact of the war on urban and regional development.
