Discussion paper

DP2891 Does a Currency Union Affect Trade? The Time Series Evidence

Does leaving a currency union reduce international trade? We answer this question using a large annual panel data set covering over 230 countries from 1948-97. During this sample over one hundred pairs of countries had currency union dissolutions; they experienced economically and statistically significant declines in bilateral trade, after accounting for other factors. Assuming symmetry, we estimate that a pair of countries that starts to use a common currency experiences a doubling in bilateral trade.

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Citation

Rose, A and R Glick (eds) (2001), “DP2891 Does a Currency Union Affect Trade? The Time Series Evidence”, CEPR Press Discussion Paper No. 2891. https://cepr.org/publications/dp2891