Discussion paper

DP4570 The Colombian Conflict: Uribe's First 17 Months

Analysis of our new, 16-year dataset on the Colombian civil war finds under Uribe: guerrilla and paramilitary attacks dropping sharply against long-run averages since 1988, lower for April-December, 2003; government-guerrilla clashes at all-time highs, exceeding guerrilla attacks; civilian killings dropping sharply and continuously to all-time lows, mainly from decreased paramilitary attacks; combatant killings rising sharply to all-time highs; guerrilla tactics shifting toward indiscriminate attacking, forcing civilian injuries to long-run highs; government-to-guerrilla casualty ratios in clashes falling; government paramilitary clashes increasing but still uncommon; paramilitary performance in clashes poor and worsening; guerrilla paramilitary clashes dropping sharply; the ELN seriously weakened, mounting few attacks.


Spagat, M and J Restrepo (2004), ‘DP4570 The Colombian Conflict: Uribe's First 17 Months‘, CEPR Discussion Paper No. 4570. CEPR Press, Paris & London. https://cepr.org/publications/dp4570