Discussion paper

DP4935 Do Risk Premia Protect from Banking Crises?

This paper studies the question to what extent premia for macroeconomic risks in banking are sufficient to avoid banking crises. We investigate a competitive banking system embedded in an overlapping generation model subject to repeated macroeconomic shocks. We show that even if banks fully incorporate macroeconomic risks in their pricing of loans, a banking system may enter bankruptcy with probability one. A major cause for this default is that risk premia of a competitive banking system may become too small if the capital base is low.


Gersbach, H and J Wenzelburger (2005), ‘DP4935 Do Risk Premia Protect from Banking Crises?‘, CEPR Discussion Paper No. 4935. CEPR Press, Paris & London. https://cepr.org/publications/dp4935