Discussion paper

DP7345 The Time-Varying Systematic Risk of Carry Trade Strategies

This paper suggests a factor model for carry trade strategies where the regression coefficients are allowed to depend on market volatility and liquidity. Empirical results on daily data from 1995 to 2008 show that a typical carry trade strategy has much higher exposure to the stock market and also more mean reversion in volatile periods - and that FX market volatility is a priced risk factor. The findings are robust to various extensions, including using more currencies and other proxies for volatility and liquidity (VIX, TED and a bid-ask spread).


Söderlind, P, C Christiansen and A Ranaldo (eds) (2009), “DP7345 The Time-Varying Systematic Risk of Carry Trade Strategies”, CEPR Press Discussion Paper No. 7345. https://cepr.org/publications/dp7345