Discussion paper

DP7397 Expectations, Deflation Traps and Macroeconomic Policy

We examine global economic dynamics under infinite-horizon learning in a New Keynesian model in which the interest-rate rule is subject to the zero lower bound. As in Evans, Guse and Honkapohja (2008), we find that under normal monetary and fiscal policy the intended steady state is locally but not globally stable. Unstable deflationary paths can arise after large pessimistic shocks to expectations. For large expectation shocks pushing interest rates to the zero lower bound, temporary increases in government spending can be used to insulate the economy from deflation traps.


Honkapohja, S and G Evans (2009), ‘DP7397 Expectations, Deflation Traps and Macroeconomic Policy‘, CEPR Discussion Paper No. 7397. CEPR Press, Paris & London. https://cepr.org/publications/dp7397