Discussion paper

DP82 Demographic Change and Medical Care

This paper examines the implications for health policy of recent demographic trends. It examines the remarkable succession of a 'baby boom' generation followed by a 'baby bust' generation in most Western countries. After reviewing the explanatory literature, and rejecting the likelihood of any major reversal in the process of fertility decline, it offers a series of options relevant to the question of whether replacement fertility now may be an essential prerequisite of the funding of welfare services, including medical care, when the 'baby boom' generation comes to retire around the year 2015. Because of the glacial nature of demographic change, policy options in this field must be considered now. Otherwise it will be too late to affect the trends which arise out of current demographic behaviour.


Winter, J (1985), ‘DP82 Demographic Change and Medical Care‘, CEPR Discussion Paper No. 82. CEPR Press, Paris & London. https://cepr.org/publications/dp82