Discussion paper DP15154 COVID-19 and Emerging Markets: A SIR Model, Demand Shocks and Capital Flows Sebnem Kalemli-Özcan Cem Çakmaklı Selva Demiralp Sevcan Yesiltas 10 Aug 2020 International Macroeconomics and Finance International Trade and Regional Economics Macroeconomics and Growth E61 F00 C51