Discussion paper DP15978 What Moves Treasury Yields? Emanuel Moench Soroosh Soofi Siavash 2 Mar 2022 Term structure of interest rates Yield curve News shocks Volatility shocks Business cycle news Structural dynamic factor models Financial Economics Monetary Economics and Fluctuations C55 E43 E44 G12
VoxEU Column Equity premium predictability over the business cycle Emanuel Moench Tobias Stein 12 Sep 2021 Financial Markets Equity premium Term spread Business cycle Recession Yield curve
Discussion paper DP16274 Interest Rate Skewness and Biased Beliefs Michael Bauer Mikhail Chernov 17 Jun 2021 Bond markets Yield curve Skewness Biased beliefs monetary policy Financial Economics E43 E44 E52 G12
VoxEU Column The market-implied effects of the Biden stimulus and the Fed’s new policy framework Gavin Goy Meilina Hoogland Annelie Petersen 15 Mar 2021 Monetary Policy Federal Reserve Yield curve inflation inflation overshoot overheating Fomc Average inflation targeting
Discussion paper DP15122 Fundamental Disagreement about Monetary Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates Shuo Cao Richard K. Crump 2 Aug 2020 Disagreement Heterogeneous beliefs Noisy information Speculation Survey forecasts Yield curve Term premium Financial Economics Monetary Economics and Fluctuations D83 D84 E43 G10 G12
Discussion paper DP15122 Fundamental Disagreement about Monetary Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates Shuo Cao Richard K. Crump 2 Aug 2020 Disagreement Heterogeneous beliefs Noisy information Speculation Survey forecasts Yield curve Term premium Financial Economics Monetary Economics and Fluctuations D83 D84 E43 G10 G12
Discussion paper DP13729 The Maturity of Sovereign Debt Issuance in the Euro Area Roel Beetsma Massimo Giuliodori Jesper Hanson Frank de Jong 12 May 2019 Maturity Euro-area public debt auctions Yield curve Liquidity services of short debt Risk aversion Expected repayment probability International Macroeconomics and Finance G11 G12 G18 E62
VoxEU Column The slope of the term structure and recessions: Evidence from the UK, 1822–2016 Forrest Capie Charles Goodhart Terence Mills 18 Apr 2019 Economic history Monetary Policy Yield curve Recessions Uk Term structure
VoxEU Column Predicting recessions using term spread at the zero lower bound: The case of the euro area Ralf Fendel Nicola Mai Oliver Mohr 17 Jan 2019 EU institutions EU policies Macroeconomic policy term spreads Zero lower bound Recessions Prediction Quantitative easing Ecb Yield curve
VoxEU Column News does explain yield curve changes Refet Gürkaynak Burçin Kısacıkoğlu Jonathan Wright 12 Dec 2018 Financial Markets Monetary Policy Yield curve News Communication Heteroskedasticity
VoxEU Column Sovereign bond pricing in the euro area: When legal clauses matter Marcos Chamon Julian Schumacher Christoph Trebesch 6 Nov 2018 Financial Markets Financial Regulation and Banking sovereign bond pricing Debt restructuring Greece Portugal Sovereign debt crisis Euro area Yield curve Bond liquidity Default risk
VoxEU Column Central bank communication and the yield curve Matteo Leombroni Andrea Vedolin Gyuri Venter Paul Whelan 18 Oct 2018 EU institutions Monetary Policy Yield curve Bond yields Ecb Euro area Central bank communication communication channel Signalling
