Bulletin 12 December 1985

IN THIS ISSUE...

This issue of the Bulletin has a strong European and international focus. In the first article, Research Fellow Tony Venables discusses recent developments in international trade theory which incorporate imperfectly competitive behaviour by firms. This new approach not only improves our ability to explain observed patterns of trade but also casts new light on industrial and trade policies. There are also reports of recent workshops on economic interdependence and macroeconomic policy in Europe and on European Community enlargement. November saw the launch of the new journal Economic Policy a European forum for the discussion of topical policy issues. At the same time as the first issue of the journal was launched, the Economic Policy Panel met for the second time in London, to discuss topics which included the European Monetary System and the Mitterrand experiment in France. This issue of the Bulletin also contains reports of lunchtime meetings on economic policy in Greece, the consequences of UK membership of the exchange rate mechanism of the European Monetary System, a comparative international study of corporate finance, and financing old age.

Counsels of Imperfection

Anthony Venables discusses new approaches to international trade theory which incorporate imperfect competitition. They improve our explanation of the pattern of international trade and offer a new perspective on the design of industrial and trade policy. The effectiveness of policy interventions, argues Venables, depends crucially on the precise nature of the interactions between firms and the government and among firms themselves.

Economic Policy

The first issue of this new European journal was launched in November during the London meeting of the Economic Policy Panel. Topics discussed by the Panel included the European Monetary System and the Mitterrand experiment in France.

EC Enlargement

Greece, Portugal and Spain have recently joined the European Community. What effects will the addition of these new members have on the economies of the Community? CEPR organized a workshop to discuss research priorities in this area. Labour mobility, liberalization of capital markets and problems of policy coordination were identified as key issues for future research.

European Macro Policy

CEPR has launched a joint research programme on the effects of interdependence on macroeconomic policy in Europe, funded by the Economic and Social Research Council and the Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique. The researchers involved in the project held their first UK meeting in November, when they were joined by central bank economists to discuss research needs in this area.

Economic Policy in Greece
Louka Katseli analyzed the economic policy in Greece under PASOK at a November lunchtime meeting. She argued that the policies had suffered setbacks during 1981-85, but that some measure of success was achieved. The PASOK experience offered useful lessons to countries trying to pursue a socialist path of development in modern conditions.

European Monetary System

EMS membership would be a disaster for the UK, argued Patrick Minford at a November lunchtime meeting. He agreed with the the Treasury and Civil Service Select Committee which recommended against UK membership in its recent report.

New Research on Corporate Finance

Previous studies of the provision of finance for industry have been flawed by the lack of a coherent theoretical framework, argued Research Fellows Colin Mayer and Margaret Bray. They outlined plans for new research into finance for industry which will emphasize the importance of information flows and will make use of new and more detailed data on loan contracts.

The Debate on SERPS

The Government proposed abolition of the State Earnings-Related Pension Scheme in its 1985 Green Paper; it later announced plans to scale down SERPS. Paul Johnson argued that these proposals were misconceived and that the debate concerning SERPS
failed to address the real problems of finance for old age.

Discussion Papers

Nicholas Crafts argues that the
1930s jobless were reluctant conscripts and not willing volunteers to the army of the unemployed.

Andrew Hughes Hallett provides quantitative estimates of the benefits of
policy coordination betweeen the US and Europe . The gains are significant and favour Europe.

David Currie and his co-authors compare the behaviour of
'monetarist' and 'bondist' macroeconomic policies for the UK.

Patrick Minford argues that
government deficits add a risk premium to interest rates because of the risk of inflationary default.

Partha Dasgupta and Joseph Stiglitz explore the effects of
learning-by-doing on market structures and its implications for trade and industrial policies.

Gilles Oudiz analyzes the benefits which could arise if
European governments coordinated their macroeconomic policies .

Jay Winter predicts that current demographic trends, coupled with rising medical costs, will
face policy makers with a choice between health care and other social services .