Bulletin 16 August 1986

IN THIS ISSUE...

In this issue of the Bulletin, the Centre's programmes in Human Resources since 1900 and International Macroeconomics receive particular attention. In the first article, Research Fellow John Hobcraft outlines the interrelations between demographic changes and social and economic policies. His article serves as an introduction to a series of lunchtime meetings to be held jointly with the British Society for Population Studies which will highlight the policy implications of research in demography. Details of these meetings can be found in the News and Events sections. The Bulletin contains reports of workshops on the role of money as a 'buffer stock' in responding to shocks to the economy, on empirical research on exchange rates, and on the implications for macroeconomic policy of recent innovations in financial markets. There are also summaries of Discussion Papers on demographic history, international economic policy coordination, and international trade policy.

Population Matters
John Hobcraft describes the relationship between government policies and demographic phenomena such as fertility, morbidity and mortality, marriage and marital breakdown, and household formation and dissolution. He argues that demographic research should inform policy-making on employment, equal opportunities, education, health, housing, family law and local government finance.

Buffer stock money
Money is the most liquid of assets, and money balances are therefore thought to be the first assets to respond to shocks to the economy. Participants at a June workshop disagreed about the nature of buffer stock theories of money, but discussed their important policy implications.

Exchange rates
Economists assessed the state of empirical exchange rate models at a workshop held by CEPR in June.

Financial innovation
The recent explosion of new financial markets and instruments has obvious implications for company finance, domestic fiscal and monetary policy and international economic policy coordination. Participants at a July workshop explored these consequences.

Discussion papers
David Newbery outlines the major issues for UK energy policies in the aftermath of privatization.

Alan Winters quantifies the effects of EEC membership on UK manufacturing trade .

Michael Wickens suggests techniques for estimating econometric models with rational expectations.

John Muellbauer assesses the implications of habit formation for the formulation of the consumption function .

Tim Hatton analyses why UK female labour force participation remained so low in the interwar period.

Assar Lindbeck and Dennis Snower suggest why trade union bargaining power may have delayed economic recovery in Europe.

Frederick van der Ploeg finds that policy coordination is futile unless governments are 'precommitted' to their policies.

John Ermisch describes the demographic implications of UK government policies in the 1970s.

Peter Neary and Cormac O'Grada measure the effects of protectionism on the Irish economy of the 1930s .

Alan Winters describes the conflicting forces which lead to inconsistent and over-complex agricultural policies .