Bulletin 17 OCTOBER 1986

IN THIS ISSUE...

This issue of the Bulletin covers a wide range of CEPR's research activities. In the first article, David Vines previews a new research project that will analyse the interdependence of the industrialized and developing worlds. Conferences have been held on the economics of technology policy and on the particular challenges of quantitative economic history. The Bulletin contains reports of lunchtime meetings on world agricultural policies, the future course of UK fertility, and unemployment insurance. There are also summaries of discussion papers on policy coordination, historical demography, and rational expectations.

North-South-North interactions
David Vines examines the complex macroeconomic linkages through which economic developments in OECD countries influence the less developed countries, and vice versa. He describes a new CEPR research project which will attempt to model these interactions.

Economics of technology policy
A September conference organized by the Centre brought together academics and public and private sector policy-makers to discuss the economics of technology policy.

Quantitative economic history
Economists from the United Kingdom and France met at a colloquium in September to discuss their current research and to consider the particular problems involved in historical applied economics.

Agricultural policies
The agricultural policies of both industrial and developing countries are misguided, according to Christopher Bliss at a September lunchtime meeting. Comprehensive reforms were unlikely, but steps such as extending GATT principles to agriculture would be beneficial.

Population and fertility
Fertility is the most difficult demographic variable to predict. William Brass told a lunchtime meeting in October that fears of population decline and an imbalanced age structure were mistaken, and that parenthood is still popular.

Unemployment insurance
Michael Beenstock argued that the Beveridge system of social insurance was economically inefficient and redistributed income regressively. Unemployment insurance should be privatized, and premiums should reflect the risk of unemployment for each worker.

Discussion papers
Matthew Canzoneri and Patrick Minford find that the value of international policy coordination does not depend on the size of spillover effects alone.

James Markusen and Anthony Venables construct a general model to assess the implications of industry and market structures for the effectiveness of trade and industrial policies.

Simon Szreter argues that falling mortality in late 19th century Britain can be ascribed to active public health policies, rather than to rising incomes and better nutrition.

Nicos Christodoulakis, David Vines and Martin Weale explore the implications of different expectational regimes for policies to control money GDP.

Francesco Giavazzi and Alberto Giovannini discover some interesting results from introducing asymmetric assumptions into models of exchange rate behaviour.

David Backus and John Driffill analyse the implications of time inconsistency, and show that a government's concern for its 'reputation' can induce it not to renege on optimal policies.