IN THIS DOUBLE ISSUE...

This Bulletin features a report of the concluding conference of a programme of research with the Brookings Institution on `Macroeconomic Interactions and Policy Design in Interdependent Economies'. The Centre has also organized workshops on commodity prices and inflation, empirical modelling of North-South interactions and the global stock market crash of 1987. There are reports of lunchtime meetings on the liberalization of EC capital flows, agricultural protection, reforming the supply side of the UK economy, the future of the EMS after 1992, and the effects of the UK benefit system on the labour force participation of lone parents.

International Macroeconomics
The Brookings Institution, CEPR and the IMF held a conference in Washington in December on `Macroeconomic Policies in an Interdependent World'. It brought together academic researchers and policy-makers to assess recent advances in the analysis of strategic interactions and international policy coordination.

Commodity Prices and Inflation
A workshop held in November examined whether commodity prices played a decisive role in determining developed countries' inflation rates.

The 1987 Stock Market Crash
Participants at a workshop in Paris analysed the factors which contributed to the October 1987 stock market crash.

North-South Macroeconomic Interactions
A workshop in February brought together researchers from North and South to discuss empirical modelling of North-South interactions.

Lunchtime Meetings
Inappropriate
management of high public debt may leave the currencies of some EC countries vulnerable to speculative attack after the removal of capital controls in 1992, Marco Pagano argued.

Previous
fixed exchange rate regimes operated asymmetrically, according to Alberto Giovannini. Current proposals all advocated symmetric regimes, which were unlikely to survive significant international shocks.

Developed countries' agricultural policies do not enhance national security, according to L Alan Winters. By encouraging dependence on energy imports, they actually reduce food security.

Supply-side failings are the most plausible explanation of Britain's relative economic decline, Nicholas Crafts argued at a December meeting. These failings have been only partially remedied by the Conservative governments of the 1980s.

Francesco Giavazzi argued that
large intra-EC trade imbalances would emerge with the liberalization of financial markets in 1992; curing them would require greater fiscal policy convergence.

Lone parents' labour force participation is significantly affected by variations in UK benefits, John Ermisch told a February meeting, but the benefit system does not deter them from remarrying.

Discussion Papers
L Alan Winters and Paul Brenton find that
`voluntary export restraints' on imports of leather footwear from Comecon have inflicted huge losses on UK consumers.

Paul Johnson explains the declining labour force participation of older men in Britain in terms of the desire of employers and unions to manage exit from the labour force.

Francesco Giavazzi and Alberto Giovannini argue that the factors responsible for the success of the EMS are not present at a global level. The EMS cannot therefore serve as a straightforward blueprint for international monetary reform.

Andrew Hughes Hallett and his co-authors explore the likely consequences of a `tariff war' on the world economy and on trade imbalances.

Michael Beenstock argues that the Union Bargaining Model offers a new theory to explain the distribution of income between wages and profits.

Michael Beenstock and Michael Ben-Gad combine monetary and fiscal explanations of Israeli inflation since 1970.

Neil Rankin explores whether the processes by which agents form their `rational' expectations affect the economy's long-run equilibrium.

John Driffill, Grayham Mizon and Alistair Ulph survey models of the welfare costs of inflation.

Michael Artis and Mark Taylor analyse the effects of the removal of UK exchange controls in 1979.

Ronald Anderson, Christopher Gilbert and Andrew Powell propose securitizing LDC debt by means of commodity-contingent instruments.

Michael Artis and D Nachane question German counter-inflationary leadership in the EMS.

Paul de Grauwe challenges the view that the EMS operates as a `Deutschmark zone'.

Marcus Miller and Paul Weller analyse the behaviour of monetary policy in fixed exchange rate regimes.

Barry Eichengreen and Richard Portes use the experience of the interwar period to shed light on the unresolved LDC debt problems of the 1980s.

Alexander Sarris investigates how international coordination of agricultural policies could improve the security of LDCs' food supplies.