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Bulletin
26 APRIL 1988 Labour markets are a focus of this issue of the Bulletin. OECD
unemployment has risen during the 1980s, but this increase has varied
across countries; the persistence of high levels of unemployment in
Europe is a particular puzzle. A March workshop explored whether
`insider-outsider' theories of the labour market could explain how
transitory shocks to the economy can lead to persistent unemployment.
Cross-country comparisons of unemployment are also the theme of the
Centre's latest book, Interwar Unemployment in International
Perspective, published in June. The Bulletin features reports of
lunchtime meetings on a variety of international issues, including
comparative simulations of the major world economic models; new research
pin-pointing the potential gains from a completed internal market in
Europe; arguments for UK membership of the EMS in light of the System's
performance; continuity and change in European family structures; and
the case for a `pegged-but-adjustable' exchange rate system. A March workshop assessed whether the market power exercised by incumbent workers could explain the persistence of unemployment, particularly in European countries. Dollar Swings and Trade Conflicts Systematic comparisons of the leading multi-country econometric models revealed areas of agreement among the models, and suggested policies which could promote growth and reduce the current imbalances in the world economy, according to Ralph Bryant and Gerald Holtham. 1992 The potential benefits from the completion of the single European market in 1992 depend on the introduction of measures to reduce price disparities across national frontiers, Anthony Venables told a March lunchtime meeting. European Family Structures Richard Wall argued that present-day family structures in the UK and elsewhere in Europe resembled those of past societies more than was often realized. European Monetary System Mark Taylor conceded that EMS membership might tie the hands of UK policy-makers, but it might free British firms to compete more effectively in the integrated European market of 1992. Exchange Rate Regimes The experience of the 1980s has shown that floating exchange rates did not ensure independence: they required more and not less policy coordination, claimed Peter Kenen. He called for a system of pegged-but-adjustable exchange rates. Discussion Papers John Ermisch and Robert Wright assess the relationship between part-time employment and the gap between male and female earnings. Giorgio Basevi, Flavio Delbono and Vincenzo Denicoḷ analyse the strategy of threatening higher tariffs in order to secure cooperation over monetary policy. Mark Taylor assesses the empirical validity of the covered interest parity hypothesis using a new and more detailed data set. Barry Eichengreen compares current proposals to resolve the debt crisis with those proposed during the 1930s. Charles Wyplosz examines swings in the value of the dollar during the 1980s from a European perspective. Tullio Jappelli and Marco Pagano test whether consumption is `excessively sensitive' to income because consumers face borrowing constraints. Hassan Molana and David Vines analyse a North-South model characterized by cyclical fluctuations in the terms of trade. Caroline Digby, Alasdair Smith and Anthony Venables analyse the effects of Japan's voluntary export restrictions on the European car market. Andrew Hughes Hallett and Maria Luisa Petit explore the costs of non-cooperation between the fiscal and monetary authorities in Italy. |