IN THIS ISSUE...

The rapid ageing of the populations of all developed countries over the next few decades will lead to a greater economic and social transformation than the oil shock of 1973 or the recession of the early 1980s. This issue of the Bulletin opens with a report of a new CEPR volume examining the consequences of population ageing and changing retirement behaviour. It also features a conference in Italy on the problems faced by developing countries attempting to implement adjustment programmes. There are lunchtime meetings on LDC debt relief, the consequences of the completion of the EC internal market for trade with the rest of the world, and a new book on Blueprints for Exchange Rate Management.

Workers Versus Pensioners
At a meeting in July, Paul Johnson launched a new CEPR book on Workers Versus Pensioners: Intergenerational Justice in an Ageing World. He discussed the consequences of population ageing for the viability of public and private pension systems, the increasing financial security of the elderly, the changing pattern of withdrawal from the labour force, and intergenerational conflict over the fiscal burden of the welfare state.

Adjustment in Developing Countries
Participants at a conference organized with the Italian research network STEP discussed problems facing LDCs implementing adjustment programmes. The discussion focused on the debt burden, income inequality and trade restrictions.

The Brady Plan for LDC Debt
At a May lunchtime meeting Daniel Cohen argued that limited debt write-offs would not solve the LDC debt problem. He proposed a `generalized buy-back' scheme in which all transfers to creditors would take place at the debt's market value.

The External Consequences of 1992
André Sapir told a lunchtime meeting that the consequences of 1992 for the rest of the world will vary widely across sectors, depending on the competitive position of EC and non-EC suppliers and on the Community's external trade policy.

Blueprints for Exchange Rate Management
Marcus Miller and Richard Portes examined the prospects for a new exchange rate regime, in light of recent scepticism about the Louvre accord, and for future developments in the EMS as Europe moves towards monetary unification.

Discussion Papers

Louka Katseli describes how EC decision-making is developing in a `Euro-corporatist' direction. She warns of tensions as unions and smaller member states seek more equitable representation.

Francesco Giavazzi and Marco Pagano suggest that EC countries with high levels of public debt may face confidence crises after the abolition of capital controls.

Prathap Ramanujam and David Vines develop a model in which industrial production in the developed countries appears significantly to affect prices of aggregate primary commodity groups.

Stephen Nickell and Sushil Wadhwani conduct an empirical analysis which reveals that financial factors do appear to be important determinants of employment in UK manufacturing companies.

George Alogoskoufis and Ron Smith investigate whether shifts in the process generating consumer price inflation have led to shifts in the structure of a Phillips curve model. Their results lend some empirical support to the Lucas critique.

George Alogoskoufis finds that fiscal policy misalignments have small effects on fundamental equilibrium exchange rates and so will not frustrate plans to stabilize nominal exchange rates.

Ray Barrell and Simon Wren-Lewis estimate fundamental equilibrium levels of exchange rates. Their calculations reveal substantial misalignments of the G7 currencies in 1988/9.

L Alan Winters finds that the voluntary export restraints on UK footwear imports agreed in the late 1970s led to substantial price rises and high welfare costs for UK consumers.

David Currie, Gerald Holtham and Andrew Hughes Hallett review progress in evaluating the potential benefits from, and obstacles to, international economic policy coordination.

Paul De Grauwe argues that the EMS has not, as often suggested, made disinflation possible at a lower cost. Instead, it has facilitated a more gradual process in which the costs of disinflation have been spread more evenly over time.

Peter Neary re-examines optimal policy towards a home exporting firm competing on price with a foreign firm, taking into account recent attempts to model subsidies set after the firm has negotiated with prospective foreign buyers.

John Treble investigates whether game-theoretic models can predict the behaviour of unions and employers bargaining over wages, focusing on the experience of the conciliation boards governing industrial relations in the UK coal industry during 1893-1914.