Energy Policy
Privatize, then what?

In the United Kingdom before 1973, all indigenous fuel was supplied by nationalized industries and energy policy was seen as equivalent to a policy for these nationalized industries. The present Government has expressed the view that nationalized industries should, where possible, be transferred to private ownership, and it is taking steps to achieve this for some of the fuel industries. In Discussion Paper No. 109, David Newbery, Co- Director of CEPR's International Trade programme, discusses how UK energy policy should respond to privatization in the energy sector.

In the 1970s, economists were reasonably confident that the main issues to address in formulating energy policy were how energy prices should be set, how investment decisions should be made, and how to ensure the efficient management of the industries. Welfare economics gave reasonably clear answers to the first two questions. The theory suggested that pricing, production and investment decisions in the public sector should be based on criteria of efficiency. Distributional objectives should be addressed by the tax system as a whole, not by adjusting the prices of public sector outputs. These redistributional objectives could be met by the system of direct taxes and transfers alone, with Value Added Taxes set at a uniform level.
Economic theory also suggested that market failures, such as the existence of natural monopoly in electricity and gas distribution or the problems of environmental pollution, should be addressed directly, by ensuring that the prices of energy are correctly set. Specifically, the producer prices of energy should be set at the opportunity cost or at the marginal social cost of production, which would be the world price for traded fuels such as oil and coal, and the marginal extraction cost plus rent for gas. Investment decisions in the energy sector should then be evaluated using these prices and a Test Discount Rate (TDR).

These principles were largely incorporated into the 1967 White Paper 'Nationalised Industries: A Review of Economic and Financial Objectives', and have not changed significantly since the early 1970s, though the present Government has shown increasing disenchantment with them. The reason is simple, according to Newbery - they do not address the third question, of ensuring the efficient management of the industries. Evidence that deregulation and increased competition could dramatically lower costs in some industries has changed the nature of the debate on the best way to control the energy industries. The Government has therefore privatized the oil industry and intends to privatize the British Gas Corporation (BGC) in the next Parliamentary session.

Recent experience as well as these proposed changes in the structure of the energy market suggest a new series of questions which energy policy must address, according to Newbery. These include the nature of competition policy in the energy sector, regulation of both the privatized and the remaining publicly owned industries, and the desirability of changes in taxation arrangements.

Newbery discussed the question of promoting competition in the gas market in CEPR Discussion Paper No. 101, reported in Bulletin No. 14. There, he argued that the decision to privatize the BGC as a single monopoly represented a lost opportunity to promote competition, but that the prospects for competition could still be improved by building pipeline links to the Continent and ensuring that all producers of gas have free and fair access to the National Transmission System. In the present Discussion Paper, Newbery suggests further measures to increase competition in the energy sector.

The Central Electricity Generating Board (CEGB) should be allowed to burn gas for power generation, he argues. Provided the CEGB is required to earn a reasonable rate of return, the requirement that it should purchase electricity from private suppliers at the Bulk Supply Tariff rate should enhance competition from private suppliers. In the coal industry, competition would be promoted by allowing private operators to develop new pits, and coal buyers freedom to import coal.

Regulatory policies must also be examined carefully, particularly in the gas sector, since the Gas Bill proposes that the BGC should be sold intact in its present form subject to what appears to be rather weak regulation by the Office of Gas Supply (Ofgas). The proposed system of regulation for British Gas, based on a formula establishing a maximum average gas price, does have desirable incentive properties. Newbery predicts, however, that the Corporation's ability to pass on the average cost of gas purchases may have some undesirable consequences. There is a case for Ofgas to collect and publish the terms of existing gas supply contracts, to make the market more transparent and to correct any imbalance in bargaining power between relatively small buyers and the monopoly gas supplier. Newbery also suggests that predatory pricing within the regulated sector can be minimized if Ofgas publishes forecasts of likely future gas prices. There may also be advantages in extending this system of price regulation to the CEGB, he argues.

Two key tax reforms are long overdue in the energy sector, according to Newbery. First, the taxation of rent is unsatisfactory (outside the oil industry). The main reform needed is to ensure that the rents accruing to the BGC and its customers on old, low-priced contracts are appropriately taxed, perhaps by a modified Gas Levy. Alternatively, the Treasury could auction the rights to the existing contracts to oil companies, who would then be free to renegotiate new contracts with a privatized British Gas.

Second, the taxation of energy consumption is confused. Some intermediate goods such as heavy fuel oil are subject to an excise tax when they should be subject only to VAT, whilst other final consumption goods, notably gas and electricity, are zero- rated for VAT. Newbery advocates the abolition of the fuel excise duty and the imposition of VAT at the standard rate, with compensating adjustments to supplementary benefits and the level of tax thresholds to offset any adverse distributional effects. Motor fuel is the only exception to the rule that fuels should be exempt from excise duty. In this case the excise duty is properly seen as a road user charge. David Newbery considered the theoretical issues underlying the levying of road user charges in an earlier Discussion Paper, No. 59.


Energy Policy Issues after Privatization
David M Newbery

Discussion Paper No. 109, May 1986 (IT)