Interest in the business cycle, particularly its international dimension, has revived recently. But the greater part of the work to date has been based on a definition of the cycle as in essence a deviation from a trend rate of growth, that is, as a so-called `growth cycle'. By contrast, in Discussion Paper No. 1137, Research Fellow Michael Artis, Zenon Kontolemis and Denise Osborn aim to contribute to the understanding of the timing and transmission of the international business cycle by identifying a chronology based upon a definition of the cycle as involving absolute declines and increases in economic activity rather than declines and increases relative to some trend rate of growth, that is, the so-called `classical cycle'.

The paper proposes classical business cycle turning points for a number of countries based on industrial production. The countries selected are the G7 together with most major European countries. This information enables the authors to examine the international nature of cyclical movements. In particular, they examine whether cyclical movements are similar across different countries, and consider the lead-lag relationships between countries at peaks and troughs.

Classical Business Cycles for G7 and European Countries
Michael J Artis, Zenon G Kontolemis and Denise R Osborn

Discussion Paper No. 1137, March 1995 (IM)