European Monetary Union
Future challenges

In Discussion Paper No. 1217, Research Fellow Barry Eichengreen and Fabio Ghironi review the problems that must be resolved at the Intergovernmental Conference in 1996 in order to clear the way for EMU: overcoming the reluctance, mainly in Germany, to embrace the risks and uncertainty of monetary union; and coming to terms with variable geometry more systematically than the EU has been prepared to do to date. Not all member states will agree to faster political integration or to participation in an EU foreign policy, raising the problem of how to coordinate the policies of participants with the rest. In addition, not all countries will be ready for monetary union in 1999, posing the same coordination problem in terms of monetary and exchange rate policies.

Issues such as monetary relations between EMS and non-EMS countries within the EU and implications for the dollar/ecu and yen/ecu exchange rates have rarely been systematically analysed or publicly debated. The authors suggest modest measures, such as making explicit provision for continuance of the EMS following the inauguration of Stage III of EMU, that can go some way towards addressing these problems.

European Monetary Unification: The Challenges Ahead
Barry Eichengreen and Fabio Ghironi

Discussion Paper No. 1217, July 1995 (IM)