While the empirical literature on the Uruguay Round Agreements (URA) has contributed to an understanding of the complex issues at hand, the sheer volume of analysis and sometimes conflicting results can be somewhat bewildering. Discussion Paper No. 1410 provides a broad overview of the existing body of computable general equilibrium assessments of the Round’s impact. The objectives of Bradley McDonald and Research Fellows Joseph Francois and Håkan Nordström are two-fold: to extract a set of qualitative findings from the broad set of numerical studies; and to explain differences in the range of results. The overview is supplemented with a discussion of the implementation and offsetting factors of the Uruguay Round Agreements.

The results of all studies are sensitive to model structure: the authors make no attempt to identify the ‘best’ specification, particularly since the outcome of the Round itself will also depend on the actual pattern of implementation. On a qualitative level, however, the literature indicates possible shifts in production and trade as the Round is implemented – for example a basic pressure for resources to shift into textiles and clothing in the developing countries, and, among developing countries, a shift in textile and clothing production toward China and South Asia. The mirror image is strong pressure for contraction of textile and apparel production in the OECD. These findings may also provide an indication of sectors likely to lobby for contingent protection following implementation. Overall, while the literature points to significant potential gains from the Uruguay Round, particularly from the liberalization of industrial non-tariff barriers, these gains could be squandered by lax implementation of the prohibition on grey-area measures and delays on the phasing out of restrictions on textiles and clothing.

A User's Guide to Uruguay Round Assessments
Joseph F Francois, Bradley McDonald and Håkan Nordström