|
|
Interwar
History
After the Gold
Rush
There has been
increasing interest in the interwar period and the lessons it suggests
for current policy. In a paper presented at the recent CEPR/NBER policy
coordination conference and now available as Discussion Paper No. 29,
Research Fellow Barry Eichengreen reconsiders the history of the
international financial system to see what light it sheds on the issue
of international policy coordination. He first examines how
contemporaries viewed the role for policy coordination at the start of
the interwar period, taking as a case study the Genoa Economic and
Financial Conference of 1922. Eichengreen argues that the advantages of
policy coordination were in fact well understood in the 1920s, but
political disagreements impeded moves towards a framework for
cooperative action.
What effect did the resulting non-cooperative behaviour have, once the
gold standard was again in operation? The gold exchange standard
resembled a 'rules-based' regime, an attempt to minimize the need for
policy coordination by limiting policy-makers' discretion. Eichengreen
argues that the gold standard constrained but by no means eliminated the
authorities' options. He develops a two-country model designed to
highlight the scope for strategic behaviour by governments under the
gold standard. The model characterizes behaviour of the banking sector
as well as aggregate supply and aggregate demand in each country.
Capital is mobile and financial assets are perfect substitutes,
resulting in a common interest rate in the two countries. The model is
completed by equations describing each government's policy objectives,
which include both domestic price stability and the country's share of
the world gold stock.
The two governments can engage in either cooperative or non- cooperative
behaviour in setting their discount rates. Eichengreen's model suggests
that non-cooperative behaviour imparted a deflationary bias to the
system. Governments increased their discount rates in the attempt to
capture more of the world's gold, depressing domestic activity. Since
not all governments could increase their share of gold reserves at the
same time, their attempts to do so were offset by higher discount rates
in other countries, resulting only in further deflation worldwide.
Cooperative behaviour, through coordination of discount rate policies,
would have eliminated this deflationary bias. Despite the absence of
dynamics and expectational effects, the model also helps in
understanding why cooperative solutions proved so difficult to achieve.
The lessons of this experience with non-cooperative strategies were
reflected in the next attempt to reconstruct the international monetary
order: the Tripartite Monetary Agreement of 1936. This agreement
resembled closely the Genoa Resolutions of 1922 but was more
successfully implemented, because political circumstances had changed
and the scope for collaboration was more tightly circumscribed. Thus the
history of international financial collaboration in the interwar period
sheds light not only on the rationale for policy coordination but also
on the political and economic circumstances which might promote it.
International Policy Coordination in Historical Perspective: A View
from the Interwar Years
Barry Eichengreen
Discussion
Paper No. 29, September 1984 (IM)
|
|