Productivity
Miracle?

There has been considerable controversy over the apparent slowdown in productivity growth in Britain and elsewhere from 1973-80, and the apparent acceleration in British productivity growth over 1980-83. In Discussion Paper No. 32 Lionel Mendis and CEPR Research Fellow John Muellbauer examine these developments by means of an aggregate production function for British manufacturing, estimated on quarterly data for 1956- 83. This makes it possible to distinguish cyclical movements in productivity caused by variations in labour utilization from underlying trends. Their measure of labour utilization rests on information on weekly hours of overtime work as a fraction of the normal work week. Mendis and Muellbauer also consider problems in the measurement of output, for which several observable proxies are available. Errors in the measurement of the capital stock are proxied by shifts in time trends. Mendis and Muellbauer compare their utilization measure with the CBI's capacity utilization data, and Bennett and Smith-Gavine's "Percentage Utilization of Labour' index. Estimates are provided of measurement biases in output and comparisons made between crude output per head and a productivity measure corrected for variations in utilization and measurement biases in output.

John Muellbauer discussed this and other related work at a lunchtime meeting on 3 December, a full account of which appears in this Bulletin.


British Manufacturing Productivity 1955-1983: Measurement Problems, Oil Shocks and Thatcher Effects
Lionel Mendis and John Muellbauer

Discussion Paper No. 32, November 1984 (ATE)