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International
Policy Coordination
Keep it simple
Attempts to coordinate economic policies internationally are based on
the intuition that accounting for interactions between national econo-
mies should improve the performance of all involved if not by the
`locomotive' effects of increased trade, then at least by eliminating
beggar-thy-neighbour policies and competitive currency depreciations.
The 1980s have seen greater academic attention to coordination and
practical interest in exchange rate targeting and monetary coordination.
The usefulness of much academic analysis has been limited, however, by
being highly stylized and by coordinated policies' sensitivity to
shocks, poor information or disagreements about how economies work. In
Discussion Paper No. 325, Gerald Holtham and Research Fellows David
Currie and Andrew Hughes Hallett review the case for
coordination in the light of what policy-makers have actually achieved
and the findings of the academic literature.
Currie, Holtham and Hughes Hallett begin by evaluating the experience of
coordination. Policy-makers' commitment to coordination in the postwar
period has varied from periods with fixed exchange rates and no capital
mobility to others with flexible exchange rates and capital mobility,
and from periods with explicit discretionary coordination to periods
with little attempt to coordinate. The authors distinguish between
relative coordination, concerned with the interactions between
countries, such as exchange rates and trade balances, and absolute
coordination, which is concerned with the overall performance of the
leading countries and the whole stance of fiscal and monetary policies.
They argue that policy-makers have revealed a preference for relative
coordination, while interest in absolute coordination has varied with
economic circumstances.
The authors then review the potential benefits and costs identified in
the academic literature. They note that possible levels of coordination
range from just exchanges of information to full cooperation across all
targets and policy instruments. The gains from coordination appear to
accrue from several sources; even limited cooperation over exchanged
information and simple policy rules, such as exchange rate agreements,
appear to yield substantial gains, while the gains from moving to full
coordination may be quite small.
Just as important, however, are the obstacles to successful
coordination. Currie et al emphasize doubts about the sustainability of
coordinated policies, the impact of information uncertainty and
disagreement over how economies work. Though it is comparatively easy to
say that coordination should help, it is much more difficult to design
policies which will deliver those gains in practice. The authors finish
by considering what forms of coordination are more likely to work in
practice. They focus on systems intended principally to promote relative
coordination, based on quite simple rules such as a flexible, target
zone type of exchange rate regime. Though not free of the design
problems associated with coordination, the authors argue that further
evolution of the international monetary system in this direction is both
desirable and inevitable
The Theory and Practice of International Policy Coordination: Does
Coordination Pay?
David Currie, Gerald Holtham and Andrew Hughes Hallett
Discussion Paper No. 325, July 1989 (IM)
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