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Inflationary
Shocks
Nominal contracts
One of the greatest
economic puzzles in an age of widely varying, random rates of inflation
is the persistent use of nominal contracts promises of future payment of
prespecified, non-contingent sums of fiat money. In Discussion Paper No.
602, Scott Freeman and Guido Tabellini look for reasons
why such contracts may be optimal for a large class of environments.
Starting from the observation that each individual is generally a party
to several contracts with several others, the authors develop an
overlapping generations, general equilibrium model in which the
equilibrium contract form is optimal given the contracts elsewhere in
the economy. They show that there are economic environments in which
nominal contracts may be superior to those contingent on either relative
or aggregate price level shocks.
Freeman and Tabellini show that nominal contracts are optimal under
aggregate shocks in two cases. First, if all contracts are nominal, the
contracting parties share aggregate risk in proportion to their net
wealth. If all individuals have the same constant degree of relative
risk aversion, this is exactly what optimal risk sharing requires.
Second, if individuals differ in the extent of their risk aversion,
there are gains from having contracts contingent on aggregate shocks;
but such gains are generally of second-order magnitude. Wealthier
individuals therefore bear more risk, though not necessarily in
proportion to their wealth, and the small costs of incorporating
contingencies may therefore restore the optimality of fixed nominal
contracts.
When contracts are payable in fiat money, contingencies that reduce the
uncertainty of final real wealth generally increase the uncertainty of
cash flows; so contingent contracts payable in fiat money will always
entail the cost of holding enough cash to meet the maximum contingent
payment specified by the contract. Freeman and Tabellini show that fixed
nominal contracts may be optimal even if aggregate shocks are observable
at zero cost and individuals differ in their attitudes towards risk.
Also, nominal (non-contingent) contracts remain optimal even in the
presence of relative price shocks, provided that the contracting parties
are ex ante identical, i.e. subject to the same uncertainties concerning
their future preferences.
Finally, even when nominal contracts are not optimal in the presence of
either relative or aggregate risk, there is a combination of contingent
and nominal contracts that turns out to be optimal: such contracts may
be interpreted either as equity or future contracts or explicit
insurance.
The
Optimality of Nominal Contracts
Scott Freeman and Guido Tabellini
Discussion Paper No. 602, October 1991 (IM)
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