Post-war Reconstruction
The Marshall Plan

The reconstruction of the economies and polities of Western Europe after World War II was an extraordinary success with rapid growth, relatively muted distributional conflicts and a rapid expansion of world trade. This period's greatest success may lie in the establishment of representative institutions and `mixed economies' in Western Europe. In Discussion Paper No. 634, J Bradford De Long and Research Fellow Barry Eichengreen investigate the lessons of this success for Eastern Europe today. Many argue that the West should extend large-scale aid to the reforming economies in exchange for a commitment to reform, citing as a precedent the Marshall Plan, which transferred some $13 billion of US aid to Western Europe during 1948-51.

De Long and Eichengreen investigate the Marshall Plan's contribution to post-war Western Europe's economic prosperity and political stability and the extent to which lessons of this period apply to Eastern Europe now. They find that the Marshall Plan did matter, but not in the way that the `folk wisdom' of international relations suggests. The magnitude of aid under this programme was too small to stimulate growth significantly by accelerating the replacement and expansion of the capital stock. Nor did it significantly contribute to financing the reconstruction of devastated infrastructure, which was largely complete before the programme came on stream. The Marshall Plan did play a role in loosening foreign exchange constraints and improving capacity utilization, but this effect was not strong enough to justify the programme's subsequent reputation.

De Long and Eichengreen argue rather that the Marshall Plan boosted West European growth significantly by altering the environment in which economic policy was made. The formal and informal conditions imposed on governments seeking US aid encouraged the reductions in spending needed for financial stability, the relaxation of controls and the liberalization of foreign trade. This conditionality pushed the `mixed economies' towards a market orientation and away from directive planning. Aid provided support to cushion consumption during readjustment and reorganization, which made the relaxation of controls and the return to market organization from war-time controls politically palatable and provided an additional inducement for reform. The Marshall Plan is therefore best viewed as a large and highly successful structural adjustment programme.

The Marshall Plan: History's Most Successful Structural Adjustment Program
J Bradford De Long and Barry Eichengreen

Discussion Paper No. 634, May 1992 (IM)