Labour Mobility
Ageing and migration

The ageing of the European labour force will significantly alter wage and employment structures, affect labour mobility, and with open borders, induce migration. In Discussion Paper No. 706, Rainer Winkelmann and Programme Director Klaus F Zimmermann use a large sample of German individual data to assess how changes in the age structure and immigration affect the frequency of direct job changes and unemployment spells. They incorporate industry- specific factors such as the distributions of native and foreign workers in count data models to estimate the effects of individual characteristics and industry-level variables on labour mobility.

Winkelmann and Zimmermann then use these estimates to simulate the age-mobility profile, how it is affected by migration, and the potential effects of ageing in Germany and the European Community up to the beginning of the next century. They find that foreign workers are, on average, more flexible to changing jobs, but also more frequently unemployed, especially in the older age groups. Direct job changes decline with age for natives and with duration of stay in Germany for foreigners. The share of foreign labour raises native unemployment significantly, but its positive effects may also be substantial if migrants are more adaptable in changing jobs, for example. Simulations with predicted age structures for Germany and the Community during 1995-2020 predict first a decrease and then an increase in both measures of labour mobility, but the EC age structure leads to a flatter development. Again, an increase in the stock of foreign labour is likely to cause a significant increase in the frequency of unemployment.

Ageing, Migration and Labour Mobility
Rainer Winkelmann and Klaus F Zimmermann

Discussion Paper No. 706, October 1992 (HR)