Economic History
Investment and growth

There is widespread agreement among economists and economic historians that large investments in fixed capital are strongly associated with rapid economic growth, at least in the long run. It is much less clear whether governments can induce or accelerate such growth by raising fixed capital formation directly or must instead implement broader policies to promote growth, which then induces high levels of capital formation. Even Kuznets, the foremost proponent of the critical role of investment in fixed capital, noted cases in which economic growth accelerated <MI>before<D> a rise in capital formation. Abramovitz and Denison also found that much economic growth could not be accounted for by capital formation, whether conventionally defined or broadened to include intangible forms. Other studies have focused on such economic and political factors as the extent of trade and exchange controls, openness to foreign investment, political stability and monetary policy. The failure of many post-war economic development programmes based on forced saving and high levels of public investment in capital also casts doubt on the importance of investment in determining growth.

In Discussion Paper No. 870, Research Fellow Magnus Blomström, Robert Lipsey and Mario Zejan note that many studies of post-war growth have considered periods of 20-25 years and can therefore shed no light on whether rapid growth induced high fixed capital formation or vice versa (or both). They address the issue of causality by focusing instead on five-year sub-periods. Their simple and multiple regressions for more than 100 countries yield statistically stronger results when per capita GDP growth is related to subsequent capital formation rather than current or past capital formation. The results of simple causality tests also suggest that growth induces subsequent capital formation more than capital formation induces subsequent growth. The authors therefore find no support for the view that fixed investment is the only or indeed the principal source of growth.

Is Fixed Investment the Key to Economic Growth?

Magnus Blomström, Robert E Lipsey and Mario Zejan

Discussion Paper No. 870, November 1993 (IT)