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Capital
Mobility
Finance and Development
At an Economic Forum meeting at the IMF Visitors' Center, Washington
DC, on 22 June, held to mark the launch of Finance and Development:
Issues and Experience, published for CEPR by Cambridge University Press,
Alberto Giovannini and Joseph Stiglitz reviewed the role
of financial markets in promoting economic development. Giovannini is
Jerome A Chazen Professor of International Business at Columbia
University, a member of the Italian Treasury Ministry's Council of
Experts, Co-Director of CEPR's International Macroeconomics programme,
and editor of the volume. Stiglitz is Professor of Economics at Stanford
University, on leave as a Member of the US Council of Economic Advisers,
and a contributor to the volume. The hospitality of the Visitors' Center
and financial support for the meeting from Cambridge University Press
are gratefully acknowledged. The views expressed by Giovannini and
Stiglitz were their own, however, not those of the above institutions
nor of CEPR.
Stiglitz began by noting that the reduction of inter-regional income
disparities and the role of financial institutions in achieving this
have become key policy issues in the European Community's movement
towards a single market and monetary union. Although the equalization of
factor prices predicted by trade theory is prevented in practice by
legal and linguistic barriers which impede the movement of labour and
capital across national frontiers, these do not apply to trade within
individual countries. Significant regional disparities within countries
nevertheless persist, which highlights the need to identify the barriers
that conventional economic theories neglect. One solution would be to
facilitate the labour mobility such theories assume by encouraging
individuals to migrate from low- to high-income regions, but regional
policy focuses instead on stimulating growth within depressed regions.
Stiglitz noted that imperfect information constitutes one major
neglected barrier to the free flow of capital. Financial institutions'
performance in the allocation of savings to the most productive uses and
their screening and monitoring of borrowers depend critically on the
quality and completeness of their information. Stiglitz maintained that
information is highly localized and difficult for banks to transfer
among themselves; a bank may be less likely to believe information that
a competitor provides at low cost in preference to investing its own
money. As a result, information about the regions and especially those
that are less developed does not flow freely to financial centres, which
are placed at a disadvantage in lending to them.
Regional policy cannot rely on improving financial markets alone, argued
Stiglitz, since these improvements arrive slowly, and policy to support
and regulate banks must be supplemented by major investment in human
capital. Not everyone will benefit from Europe's financial integration,
which may hurt some lagging regions, but there is clearly a range of
appropriate government policies even within a monetary union which may
be applied to stimulate development and promote stability.
Giovannini argued that European governments' traditional approach to
eliminating `pockets of poverty' by handing out transfers tends to lead
to bureaucratization of the centre and corruption at the periphery.
Moreover, while promoting markets and intermediation to facilitate the
free flow of mobile factors into regions in which they are scarce is
naturally appealing to economists, in practice it is no more effective
than transfers in reducing regional disparities. There is little
evidence to support the view that capital mobility ensures the
convergence of growth rates and living standards. For example, in the
pre-1914 British Empire, common laws and regulations and the strict
enforcement of property rights should have provided an ideal environment
for capital to flow from the UK to the poorer colonies where it would
secure the greatest return; in practice, the greatest investment from
London flowed not to India but to the US. Results of both cross-section
and time-series models indicate that opening up capital markets need not
lead to an investment boom, despite increased returns. And interest
rates and lending rates for comparable bank loans are higher in the
Italian Mezzogiorno than in the North, even if they are made by local
banks that should enjoy an informational advantage.
Turning to the regulation of financial institutions, Giovannini
expressed doubt about the efficacy of government intervention: many
significant risks are simply uninsurable, but governments should
consider what they can do jointly with capital markets to provide
insurance that currently available contracts do not provide. Nor would a
return to stricter controls on capital flows prove beneficial, since
inappropriate government interventions in the market-place may prove
very costly. Giovannini concluded that there is no magic formula for an
optimal regulatory mechanism to direct mobile capital to regions in
which it will yield the greatest benefits. A properly functioning
financial system is only one element in a broader range of policies to
promote development, which should include infrastructural investment,
the enforcement of contracts and raising skill levels and investing in
human capital.
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