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Global
Economic Institutions
Prospects for the
Future
A 'Global Economic Institutions' (GEI) research programme funded by
the UK Economic and Social Research Council was initiated at the
beginning of 1994. The purpose of the programme is to study how existing
global economic institutions and regimes operate, how they might be
improved, and whether new institutions are needed. Initial research in
the programme has focused on the future of the international monetary
system and the role of the IMF. Plans are also underway in the areas of
international competition policy and the regulation of new information
services, and regionalism. The Director of the programme is David
Vines (University of Oxford and CEPR). A programme newsletter was
launched in August by CEPR with the aim of keeping a wide audience in
touch with the programme's output.
The first GEI programme workshop on 'The Future of Global Economic
Institutions' was held at CEPR on 22/23 March. The first session was
chaired by Jim Rollo (Foreign and Commonwealth Office): Max
Corden (Johns Hopkins University) presented a paper on 'The IMF and
the World Bank, followed by Jesus Seade (World Trade
Organization) on 'The Future of the World Trade Organisation and its
Relations with Other Global Economic Institutions'. The second session
was chaired by Andrew Crockett (Bank for International
Settlements) at which Mike Neilson (DGII, European Commission)
gave 'A Personal View from Brussels: Coordination, Global Coherence and
Regionalism'. At dinner, Sir Nigel Wicks (HM Treasury) spoke on
'The G7 Coordination Process.
On the second day of the workshop, Jill Hills (City
University) chaired the first session: David Vines presented
'Asia-Pacific Regionalism: A View of the Implications for Europe',
followed by Paul David (All Souls College, Oxford, and Stanford
University) on 'Institutional Rules and Delays in Agreement on Technical
Standards', and Peter Holmes (Sussex University) on 'The WTO and
Competition Policy: Opportunities and Obstacles'. In the closing session
chaired by Nicholas Crafts (University of Warwick and CEPR), Marcus
Miller (University of Warwick and CEPR) presented 'The IMF as a
Discipline Device: What does Economic Theory Tell Us?', followed by Pinar
Bagci (University of Cambridge) and William Perraudin (Birkbeck
College, London, and CEPR) on 'Do IMF Programmes Work?'. A full report
of the workshop is in issue one of the GEI newsletter.
The second GEI workshop was on 'Political Economy, Sovereign Debt
and the Role of the IMF'. It was held in Cambridge on 7/8 July, and
organized by Marcus Miller, William Perraudin and Jonathan Thomas
(University of Warwick). The first paper was by James Boughton (IMF)
on 'The IMF and the Latin American Debt Crisis: Seven Common
Criticisms', and this was followed by Anne Sibert (Virginia
Polytechnic) on 'The Timing of Privatization' (written with William
Perraudin), a paper which uses a bargaining model to examine the timing
of this particular type of structural reform. In 'Sovereign Debt
Buybacks Revisited', Jonathan Thomas reconsidered the arguments
against sovereign debt buybacks, presenting a 'willingness-to-pay' model
in which the sovereign determines repayments as the solution to an
explicit welfare maximization problem.
In 'The Political Economy of Savings Behaviour and the Role of the
International Financial Institutions', Joshua Aizenman (Dartmouth
College) and Andrew Powell (Banco Central de Argentina) provided
an explanation of why many governments facing volatile revenue streams
appear to have woefully inadequate savings. In 'The IMF and the 1982 and
1994 Crises: Who is in Charge?', Michael Dooley (University of
California, Santa Cruz) examined the role of the IMF as financial
intermediary in the 'political credit market'. In 'Seigniorage,
Inflation and IMF Intervention', Marcus Miller and Lei Zhiang
(University of Warwick) used a simple monetary model to show various
ways in which the presence of an external agency, such as the IMF, might
affect rates of government spending and inflation in an economy which
relies heavily on seignorage to finance its deficit. William
Perraudin and Pinar Bagci re-presented their 'Do IMF
Programmes Work?', a paper which uses a new methodological approach for
evaluating IMF programmes, focused on the problem of self-selection bias
arising from the non-random sampling of countries that have programmes.
In 'How Private Creditors Fared with Sovereign Lending: Evidence
from the 1970-92 Period', Christoph Klingen (Institut fur
Bolkswirtschaft - check, Basel) presented a methodology to recover the
payment flows between private creditors and debtor countries from
World-Debt-Table data. In 'The IMF Supported Programs of Poland and
Russia, 1990-94: Principles, Errors, and Results', Stanislaw Gomulka
(LSE) suggested that the roles of the IMF and the World Bank in Poland
and Russia have been helpful but relatively modest. Mikhail Klimenko
(Stanford University) presented 'International Mediation in the
Rescheduling of Sovereign Debt', extending some infinite bargaining
models to analyse the role of the IMF as an intermediary in the
negotiations between private lenders and borrower countries. Finally, Kenneth
Kletzer (University of California, Santa Cruz), in 'Sovereign Debt
as Intertemporal Barter', written with Brian Wright, described the
equilibrium intertemporal exchange relationship that underlies a formal
contract for loans between sovereigns. A full report of the workshop
will appear in issue two of the GEI newsletter.
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