|
|
ESRC/CEPR
Corporate
Finance, Investment and Taxation
The pace of change
in financial markets throughout the world has focussed increased
attention on corporate financial structure and its relation to financial
markets and the tax system. A very successful conference focusing on
this subject took place from September 2 to September 6 at Wadham
College, Oxford, under the auspices of the Economic and Social Research
Council and CEPR. The conference was organized by Jeremy Edwards
(St. John's College, Cambridge and CEPR), Julian Franks (London
Business School), Colin Mayer (St Anne's College, Oxford, and
CEPR), and Stephen Schaefer (London Business School and CEPR).
Financial support for the conference was provided by the Economic and
Social Research Council and by Drexel Burnham Lambert.
The conference brought together an international group of about
forty-five scholars working in the area of corporate finance, investment
and taxation. A major objective was to attract participants with varying
perspectives, such as financial economists and public policy
specialists. The papers chosen reflected these varied perspectives, and
the discussions which followed the presentation of the papers clearly
illustrated the different research paradigms currently in use.
Approximately a quarter of the authors of the papers presented and of
the participants were young scholars who had recently entered the field;
their participation was also an objective stressed by the organisers and
the ESRC.
The first paper, by Alan Auerbach (Pennysylvania), was entitled
'Tax Reform, Investment and the Value of the Firm'. It provided an
empirical application to US data of Abel's work, which showed how
temporary and anticipated changes in the tax code would affect short-run
investment behaviour and the value of 'marginal q', which represents the
net cost of new capital goods. Auerbach used simulations to calculate
effective tax rates and the value of q for two types of fixed investment
(structures and equipment) for the period 1953-1990, assuming the
Bradley-Gephardt 'Fair Tax Plan' were implemented in 1985. Auerbach's
calculations showed effective tax rates on equipment falling to about
zero in 1981, as a result of the introduction of the Accelerated Cost
Recovery System (ACRS). With the reduction in inflation in 1982,
effective tax rates fell even further, to about -20% on equipment
(although rates on structures remained positive). Values of q have also
declined over time, as the distinction made by the tax system between
old and new capital has widened. Average q throughout the 1950s and
until 1962 was about 1. It then fell to 0.8 by 1981 and has since stayed
there. Implementation of the Bradley-Gephart proposals would cause it to
rise again, as the tax distinction between old and new capital was
reduced. Auerbach also addressed the issue of how changes in the tax
code create windfall gains or losses on old equipment, as well as how
such changes affect incentives to invest in new equipment. The Bradley-Gephardt
proposals, for example, seem to provide windfall gains to old capital
and reduced incentives to make new investments!
In the second paper Jim Poterba (MIT) asked 'How Burdensome Are
Capital Gains Taxes?' It is often claimed that the effective tax rate on
capital gains is low, and a rate of between 4 and 5% is often quoted.
There are two straightforward ways of avoiding such taxes, it is argued,
by postponing realization or by offsetting gains by realizing losses.
Poterba took issue with this argument. Evidence from the tax status of
individuals in the US for 1982 indicated that a substantial proportion
of investors who pay tax choose to realize their capital gains and do
not appear to make any effort to realize losses in order to offset these
gains. Yet 11% of investors not only realized losses in this way but
also claimed the maximum allowable loss offset. Clearly, at least some
investors avoid capital gains tax through the loss-offset provisions.
Another group also avoids capital gains tax, but by the simple device of
not reporting them to the IRS! Data provided by brokerage houses and the
IRS suggest that a much higher proportion of transactions recorded by
brokerage houses results in gains for investors, compared with
transactions recorded by the IRS. For trades lasting between six months
and a year, for example, the brokerage firm data suggest that nearly 60%
of all transactions yield gains, while the IRS tabulations suggest just
over 30%. Poterba may be right in saying that non- reporting is more
popular than death as a means of avoiding capital gains taxes. An
important puzzle raised by Poterba remains: the evident failure of so
many investors to minimize their tax liability. The finance literature
often refers to the dividend puzzle; Poterba provided a capital gains
puzzle.
Julian Alworth (Bank of International Settlements) presented a
paper on 'A Cost of Capital Approach to the Taxation of Foreign Direct
Investment Income'. Using the approach pioneered by King and Fullerton,
he compared different types of double taxation agreements, as well as
the integration of corporate income taxation with that of dividends. He
then used this analytical framework to examine how alternative systems
of corporate taxation and double taxation relief affect the financial
policy of multinationals through, for example, their choice of dividends
versus new equity issues. Alworth's results suggest that attempts to
raise or lower corporate taxes in an individual country, intended to
affect the incentive to invest, may be frustrated unless they take
account of the residence of the parent company, the legal form of the
affiliate, and the type of financing involved.
Most models of international capital market equilibrium suggest that an
investor's optimal portfolio should consist of a world- wide spread of
risky assets (the 'world market' portfolio), regardless of the
particular currency in which the investor ultimately wishes to consume
his income. In practice, however, investors' portfolios are heavily
weighted in favour of domestic assets. In the final paper of the
conference's first day, entitled 'Costs to Crossborder Investment and
International Equity Market Equilibrium', Ian Cooper and Evi
Kaplanis (London Business School) attempted to provide a theoretical
rationale for such observed portfolio behaviour.
The authors developed an international Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
which incorporated barriers to crossborder investment. Such barriers
consist of a mixture of measurable costs, such as witholding taxes, and
intangibles such as the extra risk of expropriation and the information
gathering costs suffered by foreign investors. How can we estimate the
level of these intangible costs? Suppose that we assume investors hold
portfolios which are optimal given the returns on assets and the
quantifiable and unquantifiable barriers to crossborder investment. Then
given data on investors' portfolios and asset returns, we can deduce the
level of (implicit) costs faced by investors, i.e. the 'shadow prices'
associated with the crossborder barriers. Using data from 14 countries
on holdings of domestic and foreign securities, Cooper and Kaplanis
estimated the costs to investors of crossborder investment and compared
these implied costs with the explicit and readily quantifiable costs of
barriers such as withholding taxes and safe custody fees. The implicit
costs estimated by the model appear to be somewhat high when compared
with the quantifiable costs. Investors in the UK and Germany appear to
bear costs of between 5 and 8%; these seem high compared with actual
costs which can be identified, although the model's estimate of about
2.2% for US and Canadian investors seems about right. The model
developed by Cooper and Kaplanis is useful not only in international
portfolio management, but also in corporate finance, when estimating
costs of capital for risky foreign investments. For example, the
analysis suggests that the cost of capital for a UK investor investing
in the US is 3.4% less than that for a US investor investing in the same
asset.
The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) acquired popularity in the 1960s
and 1970s as an explanation of financial asset prices. Assets are
assumed to carry uncertain returns, while investors are risk-averse
utility maximizers; the theory suggests that the expected return on an
asset should be positively related to its 'beta', a measure of
non-diversifiable or 'market' risk. Tests of the CAPM have necessarily
involved the use of a proxy variable to represent the return on the
market portfolio of risky assets. In 1977 Roll first drew attention to
the difficulties involved in testing the validity of the CAPM using such
proxies. It is possible, he noted, that the theory might be rejected
though true because the proxy is inefficient, or that the CAPM is false
even though the test using the proxy supports it; conclusions drawn from
tests of the CAPM are therefore ambiguous.
On the second day of the conference Jay Shanken (University of
California, Berkeley), in his paper 'Proxies and Asset Pricing
Relations: Living With the Roll Critique' analyzed the conditions under
which the inefficiency of the market portfolio might be correctly
inferred, even though a proxy has been used because the behaviour of
only a subset of the market's assets can be observed. Shanken's
procedure requires that the investigator specify a lower bound on the
adequacy of the proxy employed; more precisely, a lower bound on the
proportion of the variation in the full range of market assets which is
accounted for by the proxy. Given this assumed lower bound, inferences
can be made about the validity of an equilibrium pricing model, even
though the full market portfolio is unobservable. Shanken's empirical
results suggest that the CAPM can be rejected, conditional on the
assumption that the correlation between the proxy and the true market
portfolio is at least 0.7.
The second paper of the day, entitled 'Portfolio Choice in Research and
Development' by Sudipto Bhattacharya (University of California,
Berkeley) and Dilip Mookherjee (Stanford) addressed the question
whether the 'winner-take-all' feature associated with an R & D
patent system generates significant distortions. Their model focuses on
how different knowledge bases affect the riskiness and correlation of R
& D strategies, under different assumptions concerning private and
public access to these knowledge bases. Bhattacharya and Mookherjee
found a large class of situations where the winner-take-all system does
lead to socially optimal outcomes. Exceptions occur when the knowledge
base is not commonly available to competitors and where the strategies
of competing firms have significant effects on the riskiness of their
performance. Even this may not be inconsistent with a social optimum if
the parties concerned are not too risk-averse and the distributional
characteristics of different knowledge bases are well-behaved.
The efficient markets hypothesis forms the basis of much research in
financial economics, and indeed has been termed 'the best established
empirical fact in economics'. In the third paper of the day Larry
Summers (Harvard) asked 'Do We Really Know that Financial Markets
are Efficient?', thereby provoking the most heated discussion of the
week. Summers argued that belief in the efficient markets hypothesis was
a shared act of faith, with little in the way of theoretical or
empirical support. In markets with long horizons, such as the equity
market, the market valuation of an asset can differ substantially and
persistently from the present value of expected future cash flows from
the asset, even though investors form their expectations rationally.
Conventional statistical tests on holding period returns are not
sufficiently powerful to detect this difference, and investigators may
conclude incorrectly that the market is efficient.
Summers argued that tests of 'weak-form' market efficiency demonstrated
this problem clearly. Such tests are based on the argument that in an
efficient market, differences between asset valuations and the present
value of future cash flows should display no pattern of correlation over
time. Suppose the market really were inefficient, Summers argued, to
such an extent that market valuations frequently differed from rational
expectations of future cash flows by more than 30%. Conventional tests
of 'weak-form' efficiency would require over 5000 years of monthly data
in order to have even a 50% chance of rejecting the hypothesis of market
efficiency (as they should, given Summers's assumption). Why then are
such persistent inefficiencies, if present, not traded away by
speculators? The answer, according to Summers, is that since they do not
have statistical tests more powerful than those of academics,
speculators cannot detect inefficiencies either! Summers cited other
well-known anomalies, such as the discounts on closed-end mutual funds,
to reinforce his argument that the evidence for efficiency is weak. He
concluded that we should be more 'catholic' in explaining the behaviour
of speculative markets, and that more powerful tests were needed in
order to detect market departures from efficiency.
There are a number of methods by which firms can raise new equity
finance. New equity issues may be sold to an underwriter at a fixed
price; the underwriter then resells the shares to investors at that
price plus the underwriter's fixed expenses. The firm may alternatively
make a rights offer to its existing shareholders. This rights offer may
be uninsured, in which case the firm sets the subscription price at the
time the rights offer is announced. An uninsured rights offer is less
costly than an underwritten offer of new equity, but it may fail if the
firm's stock price falls subsequently, and the firm may incur costs as a
result. Very frequently firms issuing rights make an arrangement with an
underwriter by which the underwriter agrees, for a fee, to purchase the
rights issue should the stock price fall.
Why does such a large proportion of new equity finance take the form of
fully underwritten new equity issues, rather than less costly rights
offers to existing shareholders? The first paper on Wednesday, by Eduardo
Schwartz (University of British Columbia), entitled 'Rights Versus
Underwritten Offerings: An Asymmetric Information Approach' addressed
this paradox. Schwartz and his co-author, Robert Heinkel
(University of British Columbia) constructed a model with asymmetric
information, in which managers of issuing firms know more about the
quality of their firm (i.e., its future stock price) than do potential
investors. The equilibrium outcome, even when expectations are rational,
is one in which all three forms of financing are observed, each firm's
choice of financing depending on its 'quality'. Higher-quality firms
choose an insured or standby rights offer. They choose to incur the
investigation fee associated with the standby offer because they know
that the investigation will reveal their high quality and the
'insurance' on the rights offer will therefore carry a low price.
Intermediate quality firms choose uninsured rights offers; the
subscription price set by the firm in the rights offer acts as a signal
of its expected stock price; higher quality firms set higher
subscription prices. The lowest quality firms prefer 'pooled' sales of
equity at a common offer price through underwriters who are uninformed
as to the firm's quality; the offer price reflects the average quality
of the firms concerned. Lower quality firms use the apparently more
costly underwriting method because both the costs of signalling and the
costs of underwriting in a rights offer would be even higher. In
addition to suggesting why all three forms of equity finance might exist
simultaneously, the model also explains why firms that make uninsured
rights offers do not set arbitrarily low exercise prices to ensure the
success of the offer, since the subscription price serves as a
signalling device.
An enduring anomaly in financial economics is the reliance of firms on
internally generated funds as their chief source of equity financing and
their corresponding reluctance to issue new common stock. This behaviour
is less surprising to financial practitioners, who argue that selling
equity causes a firm's stock price to fall. There are no close
substitutes for the shares of a particular firm, it is argued, and the
increase in the supply of shares causes a decline in the firm's stock
price because the demand curve for shares slopes downward. In contrast,
finance theory suggests that the price of a security is determined
solely by the risk and expected return associated with the security's
future cash flow. New issue price effects will not occur in efficient
markets unless they are based on changes in expected cash flows from the
security.
Paul Asquith (Harvard Business School) presented an empirical
analysis of this anomaly in a paper co-authored with David Mullins
(Harvard Business School), entitled 'Equity Issues and Offering
Dilution.' They examined the 'announcement day' and 'issue day' price
effects of over 500 equity issues. The announcement of equity offerings
reduces stock prices significantly, and Asquith and Mullins argue that
this cannot be explained by changes in the capital structure associated
with the equity offerings. Their regression results for industrial
issues indicate that the price reduction on the day the new issue is
announced is significantly related to the size of the equity offering.
Although the price fall causes only a small percentage reduction in the
equity value of the firm, the decrease in the value of the firm on
announcement day is a substantial fraction of the proceeds of the stock
issue. The results suggest that there is an average 31% loss of value of
the funds raised by the rights issue, and almost 25% of primary issues
produced a dilution greater than 50%. These results may explain why
firms are reluctant to issue new equity, and confirm the view of many
practitioners that large equity issues depress stock prices. It may be,
however, as Asquith and Mullins noted, that large equity issues act as a
signal and are more frequently associated with bad news than are small
issues. The results also confirm a view expressed by other researchers
that firms tend to issue new equity after a rise in the general level of
stock prices, and perhaps more important, after a rise in price of that
particular firm's stock relative to the market.
The third paper of the day, entitled 'Credit Rationing', was jointly
presented by Joseph Stiglitz (Princeton University) and Andrew
Weiss (Columbia University). In it they extended the analysis of
their earlier paper in the American Economic Review, in which they
showed that a bank's profits per dollar loaned could decrease as
it raised the interest it charged borrowers or increased the amount of
collateral it required. This surprising inverse relationship between the
loan profitability and the interest rate charged could arise from the
'adverse selection effects' of increasing interest rates: as interest
rates rise, the borrowers who are discouraged are likely to be those who
intended to invest in relatively safe projects. It might also be caused
by incentive effects: at higher interest rates borrowers choose riskier
projects. Higher collateral requirements could also cause loan
profitability to decline because of adverse selection. If borrowers are
worried less by risk as their wealth increases, raising collateral
requirements would discourage less wealthy borrowers and raise the
average riskiness of the bank's loans. Stiglitz and Weiss found that the
resulting equilibrium may be one in which there is an excess demand for
loanable funds at a particular interest rate or collateral requirement
and that banks do not have an incentive to raise the interest rate or
collateral requirement to eliminate the excess demand; banks therefore
ration credit to particular borrowers.
In the paper presented at the conference, Stiglitz and Weiss go beyond
their earlier work by analysing a model in which banks can alter both
interest rates and collateral requirements simultaneously; in
this situation the loan contract acts as a self-selection device. If
banks offer several different contracts to borrowers, Stiglitz and Weiss
show that there may be credit rationing for each of the contracts;
merely changing the model so as to increase the variety of contracts and
the number of borrowing groups does not therefore reduce the numbers
that are credit-rationed. In addition the equilibrium may be
characterized by different types of borrowers choosing the same
contract, a result which Stiglitz and Weiss argued accords with casual
empiricism.
Textbooks include the transformation of illiquid assets into more liquid
liabilities as one of the reasons for the existence of the banking
system. In the final paper of the day, entitled 'Competitive Banking in
a Simple Model', Luca Anderlini (Wolfson College, Cambridge)
discussed theoretical models which might capture this function of a
banking system. Banks serve to transform illiquid assets into liquid
ones; the need for this arises in his model because depositors are
unsure when they will want to withdraw their funds, and production
technology is such that early disinvestment is penalised.
His paper makes use of these features in order to gain further insight
into the liquidity transformation process and its consequences.
Anderlini shows that the combination of an illiquid technology with
consumers' 'desire for flexibility' is enough to create the need for a
financial intermediary with illiquid assets and more liquid liabilities;
this arises even though the model contains no uncertainty concerning the
production technology. Banks are risk-pooling institutions, transforming
illiquid assets into more liquid ones for their depositors, and this
leads to a Pareto-superior equilibrium for the economy. It is precisely
this liquidity transformation role, however, which creates the
possibility of an unsatisfactory equilibrium in which there is a run on
banks. If the liquidity transformation is disturbed by a bank run, the
result can be worse for society than the equilibrium without a
banking system! This inevitable 'instability' of the banking system
seems to provide a good argument in favour of its regulation, Anderlini
argues, although regulations which guarantee that the banking system
will always run smoothly are difficult to devise in the context of his
model.
The first paper on Thursday, presented by Oliver Hart (MIT and
CEPR) was entitled 'The Costs and Benefits of Ownership: A Theory of
Vertical and Lateral Integration' (available as CEPR Discussion Paper
No. 70). In this paper, written jointly with Sanford Grossman
(Princeton University), firms' integration is analyzed in the light of
the theory of 'costly' contracts. When it is too costly for one party to
specify a long list of particular rights that it desires over another
party's assets, it may be optimal to purchase all the rights except
those specifically mentioned in the contract; this effectively gives
ownership over the asset. Grossman and Hart show that such acquisitions
can have harmful effects. For example, a firm may purchase its supplier,
thereby removing residual rights of control from the manager of the
supplying company. By doing so it can distort the manager's incentives
sufficiently to make ownership harmful.
Grossman and Hart apply this model to the insurance industry, where some
firms have their own sales force and other firms sell insurance through
independent agents or brokers. In the first case the insurance company
owns the list of customers and in the second case the agent does. In the
second case the insurance company has no control or rights over the
independent agent's customer list; this is the essential difference
between the two situations. Grossman and Hart show that there is an
incentive for the firm having control over the list to over-invest and
for the other party to under-invest. They then ask when the insurance
company should have control over the customer list. Their model predicts
that in products where the renewal of contracts is not guaranteed and is
sensitive to the agent's own actions, the agent will be more likely to
own the list, whereas in products where renewal is more certain and is
less sensitive to the agent's actions, the company will more likely own
the list. The most important implication of Grossman and Hart's model is
that the distribution of ownership rights has consequences for economic
efficiency. These arise from the impossibility of ex ante bargaining
over all aspects of the product to be delivered, that is, from the
incompleteness of the contract. Integration alters but does not
eliminate the incentives for opportunistic and distortionary behaviour.
In recent years, employee compensation plans have increased in variety
and complexity. They may include direct salary and bonus plans, deferred
salary and bonus contracts of various forms, stock purchase plans, stock
appreciation rights, performance units, dividend units and share plans.
These plans are often combined with fringe benefits, pensions, and a
variety of plans featuring insurance, annuities and loans at various
rates of interest. Two distinct literatures have evolved to explain the
motivation for the variety of observed compensation contracts. Tax
literature has emphasised the virtues of group term life insurance,
pension plans, deferred compensation plans, and stock plans that can
convert ordinary income into capital gains (although at a tax cost to
the corporation). The 'agency' literature of economics, finance, and
accounting recognizes that employees cannot always be relied on to take
managerial decisions that are in the best interest of the firm's owners.
Unless owners can somehow devise and implement effective and costless
monitoring systems, the fortunes of employees must be tied in a
nontrivial manner to the fortunes of the firm in order to provide the
proper incentives. Employees, however, generally prefer less risky
compensation schemes. The complexity of compensation packages reflects
this conflict between efficient risk-sharing and effective incentives.
Myron Scholes (Stanford) endeavoured to integrate these two
approaches in his paper 'Employee Compensation and Taxes: Links with
Incentives and with Investment and Financing Decisions,' co- authored
with Mark Wolfson (Stanford). They attempted to distinguish those
features of compensation plans that appear to be motivated by tax
considerations from those that appear to be designed to create
appropriate incentives within the firm, and to understand the
interaction of these two motives. Scholes argued that with few
exceptions, previous analyses have concentrated on either the tax
aspects of compensation planning or on the incentive aspects.
However, both effects are pervasive in compensation planning, as they
are in the firm's capital structure and investment policy. Indeed,
Scholes argued, the capital structure question subsumes the employee
compensation question. The optimal capital structure cannot be chosen
independently of employee compensation planning (and vice versa).
Similarly, tax planning cannot proceed independently of the employee
incentive structure. As a consequence, it may be difficult to
distinguish those compensation contracts that are tax-motivated and
those that are incentive-motivated. This identification problem has
important implications for empirical work. In the paper presented at the
conference, Scholes and Wolfson attempted to predict the forms of
employee compensation encouraged by the array of differing employee and
employer tax positions. Observed compensation packages that differ
systematically from these predictions should then provide important
clues to other motivations for the plans that are chosen, such as
problems of incentives and of contracting under conditions of moral
hazard or adverse selection.
The final paper of the day, presented by Paul Grout (Birmingham
and CEPR), was entitled 'Employee Share Ownership Schemes'. His paper
analyzed how negotiated wages and the firm's investment decisions are
affected by share ownership schemes, not only those involving all
employees but also schemes that involve only 'key employees' of the
firm. Grout shows that the impact of employee share ownership on
investment and employment depends critically on whether employees make
the decision to purchase shares jointly or independently of each other.
The tax consequences of the share purchases are also important; Grout
considers both the case in which the purchases have no tax consequences,
and one in which employees' gains from share ownership are taxed as
capital gains. This gave Grout four cases to consider in his analysis.
Grout found that certain features are common to all four cases. For
example, employees will want to sell their shares at the first
opportunity. But employee share ownership schemes can be profitably
introduced in three of the four cases; the exception is the joint
purchase - no taxation case. If a scheme can be profitably introduced,
Grout finds it is because it alters the wage relationship by encouraging
employees to have greater concern for the longer run; this may encourage
higher levels of investment and employment by the firm.
Grout used simulation techniques in an attempt to quantify the
effects of employee share ownership schemes. The simulations revealed
significant effects on investment and employment, even when employees
own only a small proportion of shares and management ignores these
shares in investment decisions. In the case of individual purchase
decisions, for example, if the marginal rate of income tax is 40% and
employees own only 2% of the company, capital employed by the firm can
increase by 6.7% and wages fall by less than 1.5%. The case in which the
purchase decision is made jointly by employees always shows a smaller
impact on investment, Grout found.
Tax literature traditionally suggests that firms under-invest in risky
assets because of the asymmetric nature of the tax system, where profits
are taxed in the period earned but losses must be carried forward and
their present value thereby reduced. On the final day of the conference,
the first paper, presented by Eli Talmor (Tel Aviv) and entitled
'The Structure and Incentive Effects of Corporate Tax Liabilities',
attempted to re-examine this issue from a new perspective. The paper,
written jointly with Richard Green (Carnegie-Mellon), analyzed
the tax liability of a corporation with unused tax deductions as if the
tax liability were a 'call' option, in which the exercise price of the
call is the allowable deduction. Talmor and Green used this analogy to
evaluate the effects of the tax system on corporate investment
incentives. Their analysis suggested that the tax system created an
incentive to underinvest in risky projects and an incentive for
conglomerate merger. Talmor and Green also examined how the firm's
investment in risky assets is affected by the tax system, both when the
firm is wholly equity-financed and when it is financed by a mixture of
debt and equity. In the debt financing case, they find that conflicts of
interest can arise between debt and equity holders, and the results they
obtain differ from those obtained by other authors. Jensen and Meckling
have shown, for example, that an unanticipated increase in the riskiness
of the firm will always result in a loss of wealth to bondholders, in
favour of shareholders. In the presence of taxes Talmor and Green find
that these results can be reversed.
The corporate tax law in the United States is asymmetric in its
treatment of operating gains and losses: income is taxed at the
statutory tax rate only when positive. Although losses up to the amount
of taxes paid in the previous three years qualify for an immediate
credit against current taxes, losses in excess of that must be carried
forward to be credited against future gains. The 'effective tax rate' on
these 'carry forwards' is therefore less than the statutory rate.
Conventional capital budgeting rarely recognises this asymmetry. Tax
shields are sometimes discounted at a higher rate to allow for the risk
that the firm may not have sufficient taxable income to make full use of
the shields, but in practice such adjustments are made on a very ad hoc
basis. In the second session of the final day Saman Majd (Wharton
School) presented a paper co-authored with Stewart Myers (MIT)
and entitled 'Valuing the Government's Tax Claim on Risky Corporate
Assets'. They outlined a general procedure for calculating the impact of
this tax law asymmetry on the after-tax values of firm's real assets.
Such a procedure would, they noted, be a valuable aid to managers making
capital budgeting decisions, and it would also allow us to evaluate
better the effects of tax policy. Majd and Myers's procedure applied
concepts used in the analysis of option pricing to establish the value
of the government's tax claim on risky corporate assets. No simple
formula was available, so the tax claim values must be computed by
numerical methods. Majd presented after-tax values for a realistic
'standard project' under various assumptions about project
profitability, risk and the tax position of the firm owning it. The
results, he concluded, demonstrated that asymmetric taxation of
operating gains and losses can significantly affect the after-tax net
present value of corporate investment opportunities.
There is strong evidence that the right to control a large corporation
is valuable. Incumbents therefore use a variety of devices to maintain
control, including changes in the corporate capital structure. The final
paper of the conference, presented by Arthur Raviv (Northwestern)
and entitled 'Corporate Control Contests and Capital Structure',
explored the choice of corporate takeover methods, the determinants of
their outcomes and the use of capital structure as an anti-takeover
device. Because common stock carries voting rights while debt does not,
the firm's debt- equity ratio may affect the outcome of corporate votes
and thus may partly determine who controls corporate resources.
Incumbent managements can use short-term financial restructuring to
influence the form of any possible takeover attempt and its outcome. By
examining this relationship, Raviv and his co-author Milton Harris
(Northwestern) were able to obtain new insights into the method by which
changes in corporate control are carried out and the price changes which
result. They found that firms with higher operating risk will tend to
have higher debt-equity ratios. The model predicts that there should be
a relatively low frequency of proxy fights for control of firms which
are heavily regulated and in which the ability of those in control has
little effect on the firm's performance. In addition, Raviv and Harris
found that among firms in which incumbents are not vulnerable, debt is
positively associated with the importance of the ability of those in
control. Thus new 'venture capital' firms should have relatively less
debt. Finally, their model suggests an explanation of the somewhat
puzzling observation that stock values increase in the event of proxy
fights by about the same amount, regardless of who wins.
A selection of the papers presented at the conference will be
published next year by Cambridge University Press. Conference organisers
Colin Mayer and Jeremy Edwards, together with Research Fellow Margaret
Bray are launching a major research project on the provision of finance
for industry, which they will discuss at a lunchtime meeting on 6
December.
|
|