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Technology
Policy
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word
Recent changes in
administrative and policy responsibilities within the UK governmetn
reflect a continuing concern over the rate of technological change in
the UK economy and the appropriate role of government in fostering this
change. At a CEPR lunchtime meeting on October 13, Paul Stoneman
argued that the UK government's emphasis on research and development
spending rather than on polices to encourage the diffusion of new
technologies deserved closer examination.
The meeting at which Dr Stoneman spoke was held to mark the publication
by Cambridge University Press of CEPR's latest book, Economic Policy
and Technological Performance, edited by Partha Dasgupta and Paul
Stoneman (see box). The volume is based on the proceedings of a CEPR
conference on 'The Economics of Technology Policy', which brought
together theoretical and empirical researchers with policy-makers and
private sector practitioners from the UK, US and Continental Europe. A
report of this conference may be found in Bulletin No. 17 . Paul
Stoneman is Reader in Economics at the University of Warwick and a
Research Fellow in the Centre's Applied Economic Theory and Econometrics
programme.
Stoneman began by considering the arguments used to support government
intervention in the process of technological change. Those used to
justify government support for R&D are reasonably well known. In his
talk Stoneman focused instead on the case for government intervention in
the diffusion of new technology which had received less
attention. Government support for such intervention requires first some
understanding of the diffusion process and the factors which influence
it. Stoneman noted that the diffusion of a technological advance across
its potential market often takes several decades. Information and
learning problems, profitability, and issues relating to expectations,
standards and compatibility all contribute to the lengthy process of
diffusion, Stoneman observed.
Despite recent re-orientations of DTI policy, Stoneman maintained new
technology is adopted very slowly in Britain relative to countries like
West Germany, although it is difficult to find data to support this
assertion. But Stoneman also argued that late adopters of new
technologies should not necessarily be considered irrational laggards: it
may be completely rational to delay adoption of a new technology;
conversely, however, there are reasons why a market economy may diffuse
a technology too slowly. Potential adopters may not take up new
technology at an optimal speed because of information problems.
Individual firms may not know of even of the existence of a new
technology much less, or its potential benefits. In these circumstances
a government policy of information provision is relatively easy to
justify. Such arguments underlay the majority of the support currently
provided by the DTI for stimulating the use of technology.
If, however, the constraint on the use of technology is its profitability,
then an information provision policy will be ineffective. Instead, a
subsidy policy may be effective, but this raises the issue of why
government should encourage use of an unprofitable technology. Stoneman
argued that prices used in profitability calculations may not reflect
social opportunity costs, and in such cases intervention could be
beneficial. Such situations could arise when monopoly power
enables suppliers to manipulate the market for a new technology; or when
the costs of learning increase the private costs of adopting new
technologies; or when expectations of continuing technological
advance discourage investment in existing technological improvements.
Even if the arguments in favour of subsidies were correct Stoneman
warned that the design of appropriate policies is no simple matter. He
urged that the currently neglected policy of providing subsidies for the
purchase of individual capital goods embodying new technologies should
be reconsidered, even though monopoly power may counteract the effect of
these policies (and also information provision policies). Stoneman
concluded by noting that we do not know enough about the diffusion
process to assess the relative importance of the factors which affect
the spread of new technologies; the whole subject area requires further,
more extensive research.
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